A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

No. The big 3 in the US are RCL, CCL, and NCLH. Terrible charts, with NCLH and CCL almost back to Covid lows. Highly leveraged balance sheets, 10s of billions of dollars in debt. Betas of 1.6-1.7. Spending is highly discretionary, and the economy is slowing. Pent-up post-Covid travel demand has been satisfied.

Valuation is never really a good timing tool. Sometimes things trade higher because they're becoming better businesses.

The sector is only a 4% average weighting across his portfolios. The price chart is telling you what the cycle is doing. We can play all these games about "better than expected earnings", which will create a lot of ink and headlines in the next few weeks. But the mathematics of the cycle are cold and unemotional and brutal. Earnings growth and the economy are slowing. Oil is telling you that, with the price down from over $130 and now struggling to stay above $80. Steer clear of most of the oil patch right now.

Copper is highly cyclical. He doesn't own any copper producers and wouldn't be buying any right now. Economy is slowing down, and is likely to go into an outright downturn later this year. This will affect copper demand. 

Long-term, the demand is there for all the traditional uses like plumbing. And the sexier part of it is EVs and greening the economy, which is all legit. But right here right now, there's no avoiding the cycle. There will be better entry points.

In his equity portfolios, he doesn't try to time markets by whipping cash balances up and down dramatically. Right now, they have about 5% cash across their 3 portfolios. They moderate market and cycle risk in the composition of their portfolios. 

For more defensive, they'll go with lower beta, and more telcos and utilities. When they're being more aggressive, they'll lean towards financials, industrials, and tech. They have a parallel workflow called a bull market game plan, preparing for the time to be aggressive.

Questionable Investment Advice: New Highs Are the Best Indicator for New Investment Ideas. I scan the new high list every single day without fail. Why? Well, simply, there are way too many stocks in North America to follow. Of course, I have my list of favourites. But in the small- and mid-cap sectors, there are still hundreds of companies I have never even heard of. This is where the new highs come in. A stock that hits a new 52-week high — or, better yet, an all-time high — tells me someone, somewhere likes the company. My job now is to find out why.  Think about it: an investor who pays more for a stock than anyone else in the world ever has must really like it. That doesn’t automatically mean it is a good investment. It just means someone else thinks it is. But as a single source of new ideas, I have found it very useful over the decades.
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After SVB, regulations will get tighter on the U.S. regional banks which will be more hesitant to lend and keep more cash on their balance sheets. Leading indicators point to a macro downturn, but some data has also been stronger than expected. So, the recession we're talking about will be pushed later. Q1 GDP will be positive, stronger then expected. Also, the Canadian and US banks all forecast a mild recession. It's unusual now, because high inflation now us being offset by consumer who accumulated a lot of cash and savings during the pandemic. Meanwhile, goods inflation is declining, lower than last year. See the March numbers. Unemployment remains at historic lows.

Prefers stocks. Remember that you pay an MER fee for the ETF. Stocks perform better. But if you've done well with a basket of Canadian bank stocks, sure hold on and collect that yield. Over time, Canadian banks outperform the general market. Pay good dividends, especially beneficial in a TFSA.

Expecting one more interest rate hike from US Federal Reserve.
Believes larger banks will continue to see inflows of capital with recent banking concerns. 
Performance of larger banks should continue.
Worry of recession creating demand for certainty in large banks.
Excellent results of banks like JP Morgan proving this hypothesis.
Slowing labor markets supporting idea of looming recession.

Nothing to suggest that markets will continue to rally.
Waiting for markets to fall in order to invest.
Expecting a flat market at best. 
Labor market weakness suggesting recession looming. 
Question is how far corporate earnings will fall.

Questionable Investment Strategies: After a Big Stock Surge, Buy on The Second Day. The stock of a company that reports surprisingly good results will typically surge on the day of the announcement. Investors closely watching the stock love the news and add to their positions. But what about investors who are not watching so closely? They check in at the end of the day and see the stock is up 30 per cent. “Wow, that’s awesome,” they say, “it’s time to take some profit.” The next day, they, and anyone adjusting their position size, become a seller of the stock, and the price may check back five per cent or even more. But the thesis here says that’s a buying opportunity. Business at the company has clearly changed for the better, and these sellers are just taking easy profits without regard to what’s changed at the company. Many investors see a stock move 30 per cent and think it’s overdone. But more often than not, it isn’t. 
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There are some ominous indicators but also reasons for optimism including lots of cash on the sidelines. Everyone is anticipating a recession and so holdings on margin have been sold down leading to lots of money in money market funds.. Also it's a pretty unusual recession when the job market is so good. The Canadian market is cheap at 1 1/2 X Book Value so there is good potential for an increase in equity prices. The Nasdaq on the other hand is at 7X BV and the S&P at 3 1/2 X BV. Therefore the Canadian market looks like the better place to be especially if we go into a recession.

Markets keep climbing up, even though savings accounts and money market funds are paying over 4%. Don't be scared off by doomsayers talking about the R word (recession)--they say that because "recession" headlines sell.

Trends, up or down, end when we don't expect it. Money managers are very negative now, adding to their short holdings even as the S&P has been bouncing up from its lows and consolidated. We now see the largest net-shorting since 2007. Negative! This is nuts. Three times in the past when this situation happened, we got a nice short squeeze, followed by a healthy long-term rally of 2 years or more. Garner predicts that short-sellers will gradually throw in the towel as the markets gradually rise higher. If the S&P holds above 3,850, the market will avoid a nasty wipe-out, and more likely it will move above 4,170 (20-month moving average). This could lead to a long-term bull market. Also, the RSI reading around 50 points to higher markets. Very long-term, she predicts 5,000, but he isn't sure about that.

Bank earnings are beating expectations today while the Fed is signalling progress in inflation but also more hikes
The Fed is not done, and in May they will raise the rate by 25 points, she guesses. Inflation remains sticky and the Fed will likely continue to raise. That's probably why markets are down today.