A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

This private credit sell-off will play itself out. Sure, there will be losses, but the firms that did good underwriting will survive. This will pass. During Covid, BDC was down 30%, didn't see many defaults, then a year and a half later were at a premium to NAV.

It's been encouraging for the price of oil that some vessels that are not American and from friendlier nations are allowed through the Strait of Hormuz. This may dampen the oil price is the war lasts for a long time. The US has more firepower than Iran, but Trump is must be aware of his voters because gas prices have jumped, his popularity rating has plunged and he must consider the November midterm elections. He may be thinking of pulling out sooner than later, but everyone is speculating. Oil and fertilizer prices have risen which will inflate grocery prices. She doesn't own oil producers, but holds pipelines.

When the war began, the US dollar strengthened, which is often negative for gold. Also, gold has had a huge run, so there could be profit taking. She doesn't invest in commodities and wouldn't buy gold now.

The private markets are ideal with people with a 20-30-year objective. He blames the media for blowing things up.  If you read the fine print within these private equity stocks, they explain they're illiquid and a process to redeem your assets, and there will be gating when demand to redeem exceeds supply. None of this is a surprise, and yet the media reports it as the end of the world. These stocks are now trading at a steep discount to NAV. Everyone should own these stocks in their portfolios.

All the banks have ETFs and fine to place short-term money. As for floating rate notes, they work in interest rates rise, but not so well when they fall compared to a short-term bond fund.

Almost half the Nasdaq is made up of the top 10 stocks. That concentration keeps growing. Three major IPOs, including SpaceX, are coming and could be trillion-dollar IPOs. The way Nasdaq is changing its rules is that once these companies go IPO, they will force the natural buying of the index funds. The passive index exposure is very concentrated too,.

The price of oil is sticking due to uncertainty. Until the Strait of Hormuz logjam ends, we will see a geopolitical premium in the energy market. Energy impacts everybody everywhere. The strait is the biggest chokepoint for oil. Trump is pressuring other nations to get involved to open the strait, nations which rely on this oil. It's a big week for central weeks, such as Australia's. Expects them to pause policy decision because of the Mideast war. Of concern is the weak employment number from last Friday--due to AI or the end of the business cycle? Rising oil prices don't help.

The so-called credit crisis in private equity stocks is wrong. The fault lies with private credit funds that are inept at explaining the retail investors how their funds work and can access their capital. These cast majority of these private credit funds have and do work and can pay their debts.  The banks are not hurt at all. These are not like mutual funds, but rather have limited liquidity and are set up to last 6-10 years and pay hefty dividends to investors in the meantime. These are long-term vehicles that lock in your investment. There will not be a private credit bank run.

There are three tipping points for oil prices. The first is the Headwind Zone where oil reaches $120 a barrel. Consumers feel the impact but this is mostly offset by increased revenue and taxes from oil producers in Canada and the US. For example the $9 billion dollar deficit in Alberta was gone two days after the war started in Iran. The second level is called the Recessionary Zone at $150 a barrel. This leads to demand destruction as consumers and businesses drastically curtail spending to cut costs. Spending on oil reaches 5% of GDP which historically has meant recession. The third zone is called Systemic Crisis at $200 per barrel. This leads to a systemic tax at every operational level of commerce which would lead to a global downturn.
The breaking point is higher than a week ago because Canada and the US are much more service oriented and a lot less manufacturing oriented, so are less energy intensive and more efficient with equipment. Also the US produces a lot more oil and gas now than in the 1970's

Since oil stocks have already run up in January and February before the war, it is time to take some profits. Consider selling into your biggest weightings.

We had a strong 2025. I think they missed the youth unemployment, and that's one of the main reasons why it went up that high this time around. Though youth unemployment reached 12-12.5%, he believes it's a lot higher than that. They're not counting people who have yet to participate in the market.

We need to improve on that. One way is to cut taxes, especially for small businesses. They're the backbone to our economy. If they start hiring again, that's fantastic. Youth employment would go up, overall unemployment numbers would come down.

Tiff Macklem has a tough job balancing interest rates and inflation (with the price of oil over $100).

AI is the easy narrative to blame. Sure, it has it's place, but it's not 100% responsible for the increase in unemployment in Canada or the US. 

The US has the model somewhat correct -- cutting taxes, pressure to reduce interest rates. That's spurring growth and the economy. 

Canada has announced some deals up north and overseas. But how about cutting taxes and interest rates here? Those measures alone will start promoting growth in Canada.

Despite the run, his firm is a big fan of gold -- more to go because of USD weakness. Turmoil in Iran is causing the price to fluctuate as investors shift over to oil. Gold will come back to life once things settle down.

If we see oil prices sustained above $100, or even $95, it will change the narrative of the macro outlook quite a bit. That said, thinks things will calm down in the next little while and oil might come down a bit.

Navigating a complex backdrop of geopolitical tensions. Supply chains are changing due to onshoring and nearshoring. Yet consumer spending is still strong, corporate balance sheets and earnings still appear pretty good. Looking at 13% earnings growth this year and 15% for 2027. Employment numbers continue to be pretty sturdy as well. Economic backdrop continues to be solid.

Wild card is the energy market.