A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

TOP PICK
Royal Bank of Scotland is not listed on North American exchanges. Trades at 10 X earnings. 4.5% yield. 18% ROE. Have announced they are going to buyback shares.
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MacQuarie Bank is an Australian bank. The symbol is MQBKY-N, but is not registered under globeinvestor.com but can be purchased from the Sydney Exchange. Gives exposure to the Australian economy where the market has done nothing for the last 2 years but is starting to wake up. Involved in infrastructure deals.
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Paul's 3 Top Picks include Royal Bank Of Scotland which is not listed on the North American exchanges, REIT Bonds and a Government of Canada 5.75% Bond 2029.
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Is bullish on silver stocks and is waiting for the ETF on them.
COMMENT
He is bullish on Oil and gas because of the depletion of oil and exploration. He predicts that oil prices will be at the $50 to $60 level, but there will be short term volatility where the prices could go from $50 to $125. He believes oil production has peaked. He also said we will never run out of oil, but the price of oil will increase as the supply decreases. Boom times in Canada, it will be a large run because of the oil sands and reserves. He believes that the Canadian based oil sands will be the largest in the world. For natural gas his forcast will see gas around $7 to $10. Again we could see short term volatility from a day to a week depending on circumstances (eg, hurricanes) Weather was mild in January so now we have extra gas in storage. This time of year prices go down as the heating season comes to the end. It's a buying opportunity for natural gas. Service Sector- He believes the service sector represents an attractive sector to invest in for the long term. As we go after lower and lower grades of gas, we are going to have continually increasing inputs of technology, equipment, investment, manpower per barrel and cubic feet recovered. So there is a real basis of service income and profitability to occur. His investments are mostly weighted to the energy service sector.
BUY
White Rock is a very new REIT. They have 220 million in assets, 19 holdings. Stable income flow , a little too much debt. 78% of their leases are government. Good stable base with long term leases with the government, in good buildings and capital cities.
COMMENT
Feels that the US has lived beyond their means. They have debt levels in every area from consumer, municipal to state government to federal government. This has been sustained, by the great increase in home prices and the great drop in interest rates, now it's coming home to roost. The home market and interest drops have peaked. Add in the "ageing crisis" and the US governments lack of preparation. Feels that inflation is also picking up, and that even though the rates are reported at 1% or 2% he doesn't know anything that hasn't gone up more then that. He gave an example of how the numbers are fudged. Say they use steak as their consumer index number, and steak prices go up too much. They make the assumption that you aren't going to buy it anymore and switch to chop beef, they switch steak out of the consumer price index for chop meat. They've kept the prices down by taking things out that increase a lot. Further on, he says that going off the gold standard was a mistake, because it allowed politicians to not have to be responsible by only printing enough money that could be backed by the gold. There as been talk about going back, but there isn't enough gold in the world to cover the US debt.
BUY
Junior golds as a group are very undervalued, which he sees as an indication that it's not speculative yet.
BUY
Recommendations relating to investing in gold. Make sure you are long, use periods of weakness to acquire more gold. If you feel the need to trade it, trade short term spikes. Some people make the mistake of selling gold. Make sure you own some of it It is best to own a mix and a diversified list of gold stocks. He predicts that gold will hit $1,000.
BUY
Recommendations for investing in gold. Buy the price of gold, buy the ETF. It is better to own ETF than owning mining companies because you are subject to bad management and problems occuring during the mining process. The liquidity is extra-ordinary in the ETF. Should go long. Dennis believes the trend is upward for gold but was not willing to put a price on it. Recommends buying wheat as demand is increasing and the yield has stayed at the same level for the past two decades.
TOP PICK
Real Estate Bonds Relatively cheap, 5.2% yield. Low risk.
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Royal Bank of Scotland Has higher dividends. It's a good time to buy. Retail banking is good. He paid 17 1/2 pounds for it.
TOP PICK
Canada 5.75% 2029 Bonds 15% annual return. This risk is that lot could happen in 23 years, but he would exit before that.
COMMENT
Views the following as the most important things to consider when choosing a stock. 1. Rate of profit growth 2. Return on Equity (The level of profitability) 3. Valuation
COMMENT
If a recession is on it's way 1. Increase your cash position. 2. Focus on short term bonds no longer then 2 years. 3. Buy quality prefers.
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