Ben ChengA Comment -- General Comments From an ExpertA CommentaryTOP PICKSep 24, 2008

The market expected today's Bank of Canada interest rate hike to 2.5%, given rising inflation fueled by rising energy prices from the U.S.-Iran war. It probably won't impact the TSX much because the index is heavily weighted in commodities and financials, which may actually benefit from higher rates. The hike follows the U.S. one. AI stocks are driving the market and there's a lack of market breadth. About half the S&P is tied to AI and data centres. But two-thirds of the S&P are trading below their 50-day moving average, mostly those not linked to AI, but that's where opportunities lie. He also likes energy.

The market is volatile. Everyday there is a sector or theme that works: one day AI works, the next AI isn't working, then it's energy or the hyperscalers, then not. We're all slaves to the algo trading and causes people to lose focus on long-term investing. He doesn't trade every two seconds; he focuses on the fundamentals, on quality businesses, over 3-5 years, companies that can grow EPS 10% annually and cash flow. He won't overpay for the enthusiasm for potential AI growth.  He's attracted to niche US software and IT now, and the hyperscalers.

There's still room to run in global stocks in this rotation period, shifting away from U.S. tech, because investors are adding up the costs and returns in tech--and it isn't adding up. So, the shift has been to the opposite: energy, just energy thrived in the sluggish 70s. Washington: How lame duck is Trump? We'll likely see a Democrat Congress, though who knows what will happen to the Senate? Probably, we'll see gridlock, which markets like. Markets would be more bearish if things shifted entirely to the left, because of tax policy. Trump lowered corporate taxes, but there won't be tax changes for at least 6 months.

Anthropic IPO: Few surprises in today's prospectus and so far, so good. US Midterms: Historically, gridlock is good for stock markets, but what's different now is the colossal amount of US debt. Expect a shutdown in the first few months, but he hopes it won't be too disruptive. AI: Democratic states don't want new data centres in their backyard (NIMBY), which will force companies to adjust their building plans. This week, the Bank of Canada is expected to raise interest rate to keep pace with other central banks, given inflation. The world needs more housing supply and for wars to end.

Anthropic will IPO next month. Revenue growth per employee is far higher in the Mag 7 then the rest of the S&P 500, which has flatlined for the last 7 years. A chart of profit margins over that span is the same, with Mag 7 far outperforming the S&P 493. Anthropic touts AI is the most important tech to ever hit the planet given better productivity. Among the AI ETFs, AIQ is the passive way which outperforms when things are bad, but BAI outperforms when things are good. Both ETFs are the same now, and they both include SpaceX. Like SpaceX, he expects huge volatility from Anthropic, but buy the dips for a long-term hold.

It's a day-by-day thing: one day, tech rotates in, another day it rotates out. We haven't seen a full rotation though, because AI remains a dominant theme, but investors are asking when and what the returns will be, and when the capex spending will end. Who knows? Capex is massive, not since the railroads of the 1800s. He solds some Meta, Alphabet and Microsoft which he entered last spring. A lot of businesses are sitting on their hands, uncertain, like the car and steel sectors. We will feel this impact in the next few quarters.

It's suppose to be an inflation hedge, but the price has been going down. It's at a peak valuation. Can't say where the price is going. But gold doesn't pay interest, like a T-bill. From 2015-2023, gold moved sideways. He prefers buying stocks.

Until very recently the market became very narrow, with only the largest of large-cap tech hanging in. As of this week, about 45% of companies in the S&P 500 are down more than 30%. With 60% down over 20%, 80% down over 10%.

The index has been looking pretty resilient, but there's a lot of weakness under the surface. Part of that has been from companies hurt by rising rates (defensive assets such as staples, utilities, etc). For companies that borrow fairly heavily, their borrowing costs have been going up. 

In particular, the strength has been from companies generating lots of free cashflow and showing pretty steady dividend growth. Those have been his firm's focus.

In the last 2-3 weeks, this sector has seen significant weakness. It's probably the area of the market that attracts the most focus. Now two of the big tech companies have gone from generating gobs of cash to having negative cashflow due to all their investments. In particular, that's META and GOOG.

That's generating questions for people who look at long-term rates going up on one side and cash generation going down on the other.

Everyone will point to what should be a spectacular earnings season, and ask why there'd be any weakness in, say, semiconductors? Earnings numbers are eye-watering on things like memory stocks and AI chip producers. It always comes down to what's the multiple, and how sustainable is it? Market's asking some questions about that right now.

Today, only ~9% of his firm's assets are in tech. That's very low compared to the S&P. 

Across client accounts, they have between 20-40% cash (depending on the mandate). If they get stopped out of a position, and market breadth is weakening (underlying strength is ebbing), they do not put on new positions.

They build a farm team of things they like to own. If they start to see improvement in breadth, then they look at putting new $$ to work.

He's not a big believer. Putting more $$ into a position that's pulled back just adds risk to a position that's not currently working.

Definitely seeing winners vs. losers. Some companies risk being replaced. Others are able to use AI adoption to their advantage. 

Bank indices around the world have very nice long-term price patterns. They're in a secular, multi-year bull market (unless you think we're going to face a major credit event). Banks have been pretty good at managing credit risk. During that run, stocks pull back to the long-term MA from time to time. All the banks have done this. 

Likes financials as a group -- one of the 3 core groups he's focused on. With long-term rising rates, power is in the hands of the lender rather than the borrower. As long as banks can hold those long-term MAs, rising NIMs should be a pretty strong driver.

Wealth management in pretty good shape. Risk currently to capital markets revenue if some of the big IPOs don't happen.