Opinions
John DeGoey
BMO SP 500 HEDGED CAD IDX ETF
ZUE-T
COMMENT
Sep 09, 2013
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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An S&P 500 tracker, hedged to the loonie. It is hedged and he thinks this is a critical difference. If you really want to get into the US market, now is probably a wise time to be doing it with a hedge. For people buying individual US securities, you are going to have a challenge going forward. Even if the US stock market does well, and if the Cdn$ also does well, which he expects, whatever gains you make in the stock market, you will be giving back when you do the currency conversion.
(A Top Pick Oct 20/15. Up 6.81%.) The US stock market is about half of the world’s stock market capitalization, and he likes this one because it is currency hedged. Had felt that the Cdn$ was probably as low as it was going to go relative to the US$, and as the Cdn$ rose in value, you would need a hedge to minimize the losses.
With the CAD declining vs. USD, it's time to think about locking in gains. Consider ZSP (S&P) vs. ZUE (S&P currency-hedged) where the difference lies in the exchange rate. Also consider if you're trading in a taxable account or not. As CAD weakens, ZSP (having more US exposure) will outperform. Therefore, ZUE (hedged) will outperform once the CAD gets stronger. In a registered account, sell ZSP and buy ZUE. If in a tax account, this is an individual financial planning decision.
The CAD has weakened, and ZSP has the USD in it. So, he much prefers ZUE. Because interest rates are much lower than the U.S., it will cost you 1.25% in hedging. Weigh that 1.25% over, say 5 years, to where the CAD-USD exchange will go. If you expect the CAD to strengthen, then ZUE will give you a better payout than ZSP. Be hedged over not.
Hedging is the thing that protects you in terms of currency fluctuation. If the Cdn$ is strong, you lose money when you convert from US$’s to Cdn. However, if it is relatively weaker, you are making money. As it is right now, if you have things invested in the US, most people think that an $.88 dollar might be a bit of a stretch, but a $.90-$.91 dollar a year from now, might be quite realistic so a hedge is rather unnecessary.