John DeGoey BMO SP 500 HEDGED CAD IDX ETF ZUE-T COMMENT Sep 09, 2013

An S&P 500 tracker, hedged to the loonie. It is hedged and he thinks this is a critical difference. If you really want to get into the US market, now is probably a wise time to be doing it with a hedge. For people buying individual US securities, you are going to have a challenge going forward. Even if the US stock market does well, and if the Cdn$ also does well, which he expects, whatever gains you make in the stock market, you will be giving back when you do the currency conversion.

(A Top Pick Oct 20/15. Up 6.81%.) The US stock market is about half of the world’s stock market capitalization, and he likes this one because it is currency hedged. Had felt that the Cdn$ was probably as low as it was going to go relative to the US$, and as the Cdn$ rose in value, you would need a hedge to minimize the losses.

US banks have been on fire, though valuations are higher. Interest rate margins are good. Do you expect banks to outperform? He suggests holding 25% in ZUB and 75% in the diversified S&P. It depends on how confident you are about the US banks.

With the CAD declining vs. USD, it's time to think about locking in gains. Consider ZSP (S&P) vs. ZUE (S&P currency-hedged) where the difference lies in the exchange rate. Also consider if you're trading in a taxable account or not. As CAD weakens, ZSP (having more US exposure) will outperform. Therefore, ZUE (hedged) will outperform once the CAD gets stronger. In a registered account, sell ZSP and buy ZUE. If in a tax account, this is an individual financial planning decision. 

He'd be in favour of holding at least some positions hedged to the CAD. The hedging will eventually work in your favour.

The CAD has weakened, and ZSP has the USD in it. So, he much prefers ZUE. Because interest rates are much lower than the U.S., it will cost you 1.25% in hedging. Weigh that 1.25% over, say 5 years, to where the CAD-USD exchange will go. If you expect the CAD to strengthen, then ZUE will give you a better payout than ZSP. Be hedged over not.

He likes the currency hedges on both. Why choose? You could own both. If we resume the bull market, and resolve that a recession won't happen until 2026, you probably want to be in the NASDAQ as it has more beta. If we resolve to a harder recession and sooner, the S&P would probably go down less but both would be hit.

We need a little more information on which way the market's going to go. By watching and waiting, you're also going to pay a higher price. Perhaps take a little taster now, and see if there's market follow through. If it goes positive, buy more. If there's a further breakdown, cut bait with a smaller loss.