Stockchase Opinions

John DeGoey BMO Junior Oil Index ETF ZJO-T BUY May 23, 2013

How to play the oil market right now. Lots of juniors could go out of business but they choose them carefully for this ETF and if they get taken out, you are okay anyway.

$21.050

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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TOP PICK

As a proxy for the energy market, he uses Suncor (SU-T), which is starting to break out. If we are going to have global growth, energy is going to be involved. You can do stock picking or buy the basket, and it is probably a little safer to buy the basket.

TOP PICK

It is a relatively short term play. This one has more leverage. It is an energy trade for the next two to three months. Oil looks constructive right now.

PAST TOP PICK

(A top pick April 3/17. Down 7%.) This was a crummy trade. Thinks it might have a bit of an oversold bounce. He is talking 1-3 weeks and is going to get out.

COMMENT

High-return oil stock ETF’s?If think oil prices are going higher, this is the best way to get a high beta version. He is not bullish on oil, and expects it will be lower for longer. Commodity markets tend to be long trending and tend to move in long waves. Commodities, particularly oil, have become extremely oversupplied which kind of keeps a lid on the price of oil. He shies away from any oil investment right now.

HOLD

An ETF that holds oil. He owns a few individual oil stocks. This sector is okay. Oil itself has risen lot, but not the producers. Hold, but if the oil stocks don't produce soon, he will sell his oil.

HOLD

Junior oil is subject to change by the moment. WTO oil has had a bit of a lift recently. There is a bit of consolidation going on in the chart for this ETF. If it breaks about $15, it would be a breakout and would be heading up. Wait for a breakout for new positions.

COMMENT

It is smaller oil and gas plays. Junior oils. 25% Canada and the rest is US. Compared to US large cap ETFs like IYE-N: As the price of oil is going down, both fell but small caps fell more than larger caps. He is okay with smaller caps. It is not investible yet.

TOP PICK
A high-leveraged junior oil/gas play, banking on the global economy avoiding recession and settling down to a simmer. It's 80% American + 20% Canadian stocks. He doesn't see a new commodities super-cycle, but does expect a lot of upside.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 25/19, Down 4%) The capital spending that occurred in the sector in 2010 was massive. The sector will be either soaring or sandpapering. They are in a volatile range. He is still sitting on gains in it because he bought it much earlier. It was deeply oversold. He is looking to sell it at some point but still recommends it. It's 80% in the US.
DON'T BUY
He would recommend taking a tax loss on this and buying into his energy fund. His fund has fewer names and a larger average market cap. The ETF is passive -- he prefers active management.