Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTABMO S&P/TSX Eq.Wt. Global GoldZGD.TOWATCHOct 06, 2014

Equal weight, and it gets you away from the concentration on the large-cap globals of XGD. Good time to start accumulating. Gold remains quite supported over the long term.

The return on this pick will make up for the next one ;)  Earnings revisions often lag the move in the underlying metal, and we're seeing that extra torque now. Structural bid for gold isn't going away.

It'll be volatile, and he expects more consolidation. If you don't own any gold, use that consolidation to dip in. Market-cap weighting is ~12%.

Gold and silver prices have done well, and they remain in a favourable trend. This ETF is winning the most battles in his ranking of the ETF universe. #2 is the BMO junior gold ETF, which is ZJG. As an institutional investor, he's more comfortable holding the senior golds rather than the juniors.

Adding equities to your gold holdings adds in equity beta, so this can add leverage to the gold price both upward and downward. MER is 6 bps. Gold is a historical hedge during periods of heightened geopolitical risk. Central banks remain buyers of gold. Thinks gold price goes higher.

Wants equal weight, as large caps tend to have less leverage to the price of gold than either small caps or the juicy mid caps. Good, diversified way to start entering the sector.

XGD and ZGD are the Canadian go-to names. ZGD is equal weight, so the big caps don't run the show.

In the US, he likes GDX or GDXJ (for the juniors).

A month ago it was his favourite sector. Gold plays had 40-50% upside but we have come off the lows. He now sees nothing with potential of 20-40% upside other than gold.

Seasonal play? He wouldn’t say this is a seasonal play. One of the reasons people likes gold is that it is often negatively correlated to other asset classes, and does particularly well at a time of real and perceived insurrection.

When gold was testing $1050 he would say yes, but we have had the strongest rally in gold in several years. He thinks we will peak out at $1300 this cycle.

5-10k shares per day volume. He went in last November and bought a million shares. The market maker created the units, so the value traded does not matter. The individual investor needs to trade at least 50k shares to have the market maker create units and you have to call the market maker.