Opinions
John O'Connell, CFA
Weyerhaeuser Co
WY-N
COMMENT
Oct 08, 2013
$28.120
Stock price when the opinion was issued
misc industrial products
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DON'T BUY
A way to play interest rates. Huge, number one in lumber, owning 12 million acres of land across North America. Low interest rates and low unemployment drive their lumbers sales (more house sales). It comes down to the American consumer. There are better ways to play interest rates--bonds. WY is interesting, but he won't buy it.
misc industrial products
DON'T BUY
BUY
A major supplier of forest products. It's up 20% YTD including dividend. They reported a strong quarter last week. It's been stable despite volatile lumber prices. Lumber isn't their only business. It comes down to the housing market. If you think housing will thrive, then buy WY.
misc industrial products
BUY
RISKY
Lumber is a boom and bust industry and lumber prices and stocks are slumping. WY is cleaning up its balance sheet and growing its 2.9% dividend. They also have issued special dividends. They have a long-term plan, so you're good to ride out near-term choppiness holding this. But don't buy before they report on July 25, because numbers may not be good. Wait till after, though that can be risky too. A tailwind would be lower interest rates, because they would stimulate home-buying and home-building, which needs lumber.
misc industrial products
Owns, harvests and sells lumber. Has an OK dividend yield. Investors have piled into the housing market trade and a lot of these housing stocks are incredibly richly valued right now. New housing starts are still at a pretty subdued pace. Longer-term it will be a positive. But he doesn’t know if the 3% plus dividend yield is enough to keep investors involved.