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Stockchase Opinions

James HodginsWestern PotashWPX.TOBUYMay 26, 2011

Bullish of the agriculture cycle but the small cap side has really taken a beating but he likes this one. Has a nice resource. Probable takeover target.
$1.43

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Mining
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HOLD

(Market Call Minute) Hold until they get the financing.

HOLD

Likes their Milestone property. Thinks they need $400 million to develop the mine so the question is, how are they going to get the financing. Doubts they can do the financing on their own, so if they can get a strategic partner to help them that would be great. This is one of the better ones to play.

DON'T BUY

Not encouraged with the fundamentals. You have seen some of the majors terminate some of their projects going forward. He does not think this is the market for junior potash companies.

WAIT

Got approval for their Milestone property in Saskatchewan. The problem is it’s a $3.3 billion project. If the Chinese took this over, then the price of potash wouldn’t have as big as an impact. Soon as there is any indication of joint venture or financing, that would be the time to step in.

DON'T BUY

Potash (POT-T) has cut back production and is still trading at very low levels. This company requires a fairly high CapX, close to $3 billion. In this environment, that is challenging. Looking for JV partners or some kind of takeout buyers. She wouldn’t be stepping into this one just yet.

WATCH

Developing a stone potash project in Saskatchewan, de-risking project by getting feasibility studies out. Recently got one out that showed $3.3 Billion to develop this project. How do they get this financing? Will be challenged unless they bring on a partner.

DON'T BUY

Joint venture was rumoured about 5 months ago but the other party walked away. For potash development, it requires a lot of CapX of about $3.3 billion or so. It can’t do it alone. Very difficult for small companies. Would stay away from this one at these prices.

DON'T BUY

Need a lot of capital to get the potash developed and the company is almost out of money. They were working on a joint venture that fell apart this summer. There is still downside because the balance sheet does not look that great.

DON'T BUY

(Market Call Minute.) Has been in the penalty box because of a potential takeout with the Chinese that did not materialize. Cash is getting tender on the balance sheet.

DON'T BUY
Agriculture would be his second choice as a sector after gold. It will be much less cyclical than base metals or oils. This company has an emerging project in the Athabasca basin. It has been considered a takeover candidate but thinks the big boys are in a “wait and see” mode.
DON'T BUY
Likes the project. If you start to see some consolidation in the sector again, this will be a natural takeover. The problem is, big companies are shutting in projects now and not in a takeover or expansion mode. This will likely be a wait and see situation.
COMMENT
If this were to be taken out, the latest one has been about 30% and that is where she would peg the premium. BHP Billiton (BHP-N) (?) recently came out to put some of their projects on hold until the end of the year so it may be slower in terms of getting buyers into the project. She prefers Potash (POT-T).
COMMENT
Upside in any of the potash companies is difficult at this time. The sector is problematic. He would prefer Karnalyte (KRN-T).
WAIT
Has a deposit in Saskatchewan. AN earlier stage project that he does like. Thinks it is one of the more desirable projects. Potash is in a bit of a trough right now. Don’t buy ahead of their first quarter reports.
COMMENT
Has been surprised at the weakness. Have a very high quality potash deposit. There is a very good chance for a quality partner to come in and to help them either advance the project internally or ultimately by the company. A takeout price of $2-$3 is possible.