Michael Giordano
Western Potash
WPX-T
HOLD
May 28, 2013
Likes their Milestone property. Thinks they need $400 million to develop the mine so the question is, how are they going to get the financing. Doubts they can do the financing on their own, so if they can get a strategic partner to help them that would be great. This is one of the better ones to play.
Agriculture would be his second choice as a sector after gold. It will be much less cyclical than base metals or oils. This company has an emerging project in the Athabasca basin. It has been considered a takeover candidate but thinks the big boys are in a “wait and see” mode.
(Market Call Minute.) Has been in the penalty box because of a potential takeout with the Chinese that did not materialize. Cash is getting tender on the balance sheet.
Need a lot of capital to get the potash developed and the company is almost out of money. They were working on a joint venture that fell apart this summer. There is still downside because the balance sheet does not look that great.
Joint venture was rumoured about 5 months ago but the other party walked away. For potash development, it requires a lot of CapX of about $3.3 billion or so. It can’t do it alone. Very difficult for small companies. Would stay away from this one at these prices.
Developing a stone potash project in Saskatchewan, de-risking project by getting feasibility studies out. Recently got one out that showed $3.3 Billion to develop this project. How do they get this financing? Will be challenged unless they bring on a partner.
Potash (POT-T) has cut back production and is still trading at very low levels. This company requires a fairly high CapX, close to $3 billion. In this environment, that is challenging. Looking for JV partners or some kind of takeout buyers. She wouldn’t be stepping into this one just yet.
Got approval for their Milestone property in Saskatchewan. The problem is it’s a $3.3 billion project. If the Chinese took this over, then the price of potash wouldn’t have as big as an impact. Soon as there is any indication of joint venture or financing, that would be the time to step in.
Not encouraged with the fundamentals. You have seen some of the majors terminate some of their projects going forward. He does not think this is the market for junior potash companies.
Likes their Milestone property. Thinks they need $400 million to develop the mine so the question is, how are they going to get the financing. Doubts they can do the financing on their own, so if they can get a strategic partner to help them that would be great. This is one of the better ones to play.