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Daily Stock Opinions and Ratings
Stockchase Opinions

Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng.Vault Energy TrustVNG.UN.TODON'T BUYJan 16, 2007

There are better producers. Smaller cap and there are safer places to invest in. Yield of about 20% is a red flag that they may have to drop their distributions.
Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng.Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng.
No
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$4.83

Stock price when the opinion was issued

oilgas
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PAST TOP PICK

Vault Energy Trust(VNG.UN.TO)

Apr 21, 2008
(A Top Pick Nov 17/06. Down 1%.) Acquired by Penn West Energy (PWT.UN-T)
Photo of Ravi SoodRavi Sood
No
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$3.88

Stock price when the opinion was issued

oilgas
COMMENT

Vault Energy Trust(VNG.UN.TO)

Sep 05, 2007
Has declined significantly in the last 2 months. Part of it is due to the decline in gas prices. Also, their payout ratio is a little high. Market is looking for a distribution cut. Currently they are up for sale.
Photo of Ben ChengBen ChengUnlock Rating
$3.90

Stock price when the opinion was issued

oilgas
COMMENT

Vault Energy Trust(VNG.UN.TO)

Jul 04, 2007
Trading below net asset value. Difficult asset base causing them to miss production in the past. Near 20% yield. Looking interesting.
Photo of Michael Simpson, CFAMichael Simpson, CFA
No
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$5.12

Stock price when the opinion was issued

oilgas
DON'T BUY

Vault Energy Trust(VNG.UN.TO)

Jul 03, 2007
Higher cost production. They have a capital allocation problem. Distributions plus Cap-X is greater than their cash flow so they need an external source of capital to fund some of their distribution. Too much debt.
Photo of Sandy McIntyreSandy McIntyre
No
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$5.24

Stock price when the opinion was issued

oilgas
COMMENT

Vault Energy Trust(VNG.UN.TO)

Mar 20, 2007
Historically have missed on their production numbers and he would like to seat management meet their numbers before owning. F&D costs were quite high this year. Have a lot of tax pools. Trading below its net asset value.
Photo of Michael Simpson, CFAMichael Simpson, CFA
No
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$4.19

Stock price when the opinion was issued

oilgas
COMMENT

Vault Energy Trust(VNG.UN.TO)

Feb 23, 2007
Just released reserves, which met analysts’ expectations. Debt to cash flow is over 2 X’s. Payout ratio is around 80%. Have set production guidance in the past and had trouble meeting it. Have a lot of tax pool, which is becoming very valuable. Possible takeover candidate. Doesn't meet his criteria.
Photo of Michael Simpson, CFAMichael Simpson, CFA
No
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$5.12

Stock price when the opinion was issued

oilgas
DON'T BUY

Vault Energy Trust(VNG.UN.TO)

Jan 22, 2007
35% of their natural gas is hedged at $7.60. Had some disappointing production and drill results, and he sold his position. Thinks it is a takeover target within the next year, but doesn't think it will get too much of a premium.
Photo of Robert LauzonRobert Lauzon
No
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$4.97

Stock price when the opinion was issued

oilgas
HOLD

Vault Energy Trust(VNG.UN.TO)

Jan 18, 2007
An interesting situation. Quite a small trust and would be an early consolidation candidate. Distribution gives about a 20% yield, yet it has one of the lower payout ratios in the sector at about 110%.
Photo of Robert TooleRobert TooleUnlock Rating
$4.68

Stock price when the opinion was issued

oilgas
WAIT

Vault Energy Trust(VNG.UN.TO)

Dec 29, 2006
Missed production numbers a couple of times and has more leverage than he likes. Has a good asset base, so has the opportunity to fix itself going forward. Because it is gas weighted, not a good time to enter.
Photo of Sandy McIntyreSandy McIntyreUnlock Rating
$5.50

Stock price when the opinion was issued

oilgas
WEAK BUY

Vault Energy Trust(VNG.UN.TO)

Dec 01, 2006
One of the smaller oil/gas trusts. Stumbled on production on a few quarters over the last few years. There is a risk this could continue. The properties within the trust are very good. Would hope for a change in management.
Photo of Ben ChengBen Cheng
No
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$5.83

Stock price when the opinion was issued

oilgas
TOP PICK

Vault Energy Trust(VNG.UN.TO)

Nov 17, 2006
Huge yield. Trading at a huge discount to its net asset value. Have $450 million of tax losses. When 2011 rolls around, this gives them a huge tax shield.
Photo of Ravi SoodRavi Sood
Owned
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$5.61

Stock price when the opinion was issued

oilgas
SHORT

Vault Energy Trust(VNG.UN.TO)

Nov 16, 2006
If you own sell. If you want a short position, this would be one.
Photo of John StephensonJohn StephensonUnlock Rating
$5.18

Stock price when the opinion was issued

oilgas
DON'T BUY

Vault Energy Trust(VNG.UN.TO)

Oct 27, 2006
Has a couple of issues. Very highly levered relative to its peer group. High payout ratio.
Photo of Kevin Hall BComm, CFAKevin Hall BComm, CFA
No
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$7.56

Stock price when the opinion was issued

oilgas
SELL

Vault Energy Trust(VNG.UN.TO)

Oct 27, 2006
Trading at about an 18% yield. One of the smallest royalty trusts out there. Hasn't gotten enough critical mass and could be a consolidation candidate. Better places to be.
Photo of Robert TooleRobert Toole
No
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$7.56

Stock price when the opinion was issued

oilgas
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Stockchase, in its reporting on what has been discussed by individuals on business television programs (in particular Business News Network), neither recommends nor promotes any investment strategies.

We paraphrase the experts by hand, we watch the shows and write down what we understood from the experts’ comments. We are human and can make mistakes, help us fix any errors. If you see something that you know is not right or if there is a problem with the site, feel free to email us at: [email protected].

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