Visa Inc.VDON'T BUYJan 26, 2026Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Sep 25, 2026. Market Open.
You'd have to go back a very long time to find his firm holding MA. Owned V for a long time, mainly on the valuation differential. MA has always been 4-6 multiple points higher. Visa is better value. Likes the space.
V might be stronger on the debit card side, which is growing at a faster rate than the credit side. Likes management. PE in the 20s, a discount to normalized multiples. Consistent, predictable. Earnings continue to do well. Nice hedge to a lot of companies that are in the news.
Visa and Mastercard have been treading water the past year because the market has been fixated on AI, but that money has been rotating out of AI into places like credit cards. The two companies have some of the best business models, big moats and trading at attractive PEs, though neither are at decades-long low PEs. Visa's layoff of 7% of workforce is good for the stock. Probably AI is making Visa more productive.
Mastercard and Visa have been weak because cash-to-card conversion has historically been the easiest thing for them to do but is now over. Value-added services are instead driving more growth. Agentic AI traffic is about to go parabolic, so can the cards play the role of authentication layer? He thinks so, and they should. Stablecoins and peer-to-peer transactions are not big deals, not major threats.
First-rate operation. As a value investor, not attracted to it simply because of the multiple (always high). Not surprised by recent flat performance -- it could just be stock price catching up to the multiple. As earnings grow, you may eventually get a margin of safety.
As global economy and GDP increase, and as inflation keeps at its clip, the nominal value of sales will go up. That will benefit a company like Visa. People will be spending more $$, and Visa takes a percentage of every dollar.
Concerns on earnings and its moat. Wondering if some erosion in the moat to fintech competitors (slowly now, but accelerating). So high PE may no longer be justified.