Visa Inc.VDON'T BUYJan 26, 2026Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jul 24, 2026. Market Open.
Mastercard and Visa have been weak because cash-to-card conversion has historically been the easiest thing for them to do but is now over. Value-added services are instead driving more growth. Agentic AI traffic is about to go parabolic, so can the cards play the role of authentication layer? He thinks so, and they should. Stablecoins and peer-to-peer transactions are not big deals, not major threats.
Both are phenomenal businesses. Comparable on valuation and share price performance. If you own one, don't switch.
His clients own Visa, and have for a very long time. Makes the most sense for him as more payments become digitized and V captures more market share. It's the largest payment network, so its profitability is a bit higher on margins. Bit north of 20x PE, FCF yield north of 4%. Attractive valuation for an essential business.
An unassailable fortress for a long time. Fintech and card companies have been weak, with concerns about disruptive digital payment systems. Near-term uncertainty about long-term profitability.
Pretty dominant position. Still trading above long-term moving average. Lagging in this market. Not well inflation-protected. Put your focus elsewhere.
He's out. Momentum has broken. Price is now below 200-day MA, and that's rolling over. Secular growth drivers are still there, for about 14% earnings growth at 23x PE. But it's more about valuation right now. If you think of it as technology, investors are seeing a lot more exciting names out there.
When technicals improve, he'd look at it again.
They reported a strong quarter with 9% volume growth. People are spending. Even if prices rise, Visa still makes money. Other areas are growing and amount to 30%, such as merchants hiring Visa to do marketing services cybersecurity fraud prevention. Also, there's room to expand to many parts of the world still using cash.
(Analysts’ price target is $403.54)
First-rate operation. As a value investor, not attracted to it simply because of the multiple (always high). Not surprised by recent flat performance -- it could just be stock price catching up to the multiple. As earnings grow, you may eventually get a margin of safety.
As global economy and GDP increase, and as inflation keeps at its clip, the nominal value of sales will go up. That will benefit a company like Visa. People will be spending more $$, and Visa takes a percentage of every dollar.
Concerns on earnings and its moat. Wondering if some erosion in the moat to fintech competitors (slowly now, but accelerating). So high PE may no longer be justified.