David FingoldTexas InstrumentsTXNBUYApr 14, 2021

Another recent purchase. Really likes that it's not data-centre centric. Only ~5-8% of business comes out of data centres; 75% is based on analog chips. Many chips are analog semiconductors, from cars to microwaves. Great offset to the data-centre world. Opportunity to expand operating margins. Yield is 2.15%.

It too is fully priced according to analysts' price targets. Like Cisco it is in the right place selling analogue chip sand embedded processes.

It issued terrific guidance Tuesday and shares jumped 10%. TXN has lagged the semi stocks for years and has little data centre exposure. Most business comes from industrials and cars. Its data centre business is growing.

The shares have flatlined for a long time until jumping 10% after management talked about tight supply for computer chips.

On the technicals, he wouldn't put $$ in. Chart shows it's range-bound. You'd expect this company to get better over time, but that hasn't happened. Laggard. If it breaks $160, indications are it'll head lower.

The big deal in Edge AI is the embedded processors. Longest customer list of anyone in the semiconductor industry, because of its analog business and its embedded division. The analysts he follows have an average 12-month price target of $249. Yield is 2.55%.

Clearly isn't going to topple NVDA from the throne on which it finds itself. Every time someone thinks they can do that, NVDA comes out with a new version of the chip that's even better.

Looking for niche areas where they can develop or meet demand without going head-to-head with NVDA on its mainstream chips. Not sure how successful it will be. Probably better plays out there, such as AVGO.

Extremely well run. Highly integrated, with internal manufacturing for analog. Focuses on free cashflow. Will likely lose share in China over time, which is looking to make things domestically. 

Fell 7.5% today on earnings. Has long loved this. They make good car and industrial chips, but those are down in the dumps.  They beat top and bottom, but their end markets are weak. They should go private.

He sold it last May and doesn't regret it. It just reported and shares are rising. But TXN's AI strategy isn't as clear as its peers.

Activist Elliott Partners can improve things here. He's bullish. Pays a 2.5% dividend yield.

Good management + activist Elliott Management.

Struggled lately from technical perspective. Under accumulation at this point. Appears to have resistance. Would wait before buying. 

Liked it until summer of 2023. Shine came off the EV ecosystem. January reporting beat on bottom, bit shy on top. Lowered guidance, and this really hurt. Not in the AI space.

Not doing well. Cars are their strong area, but cars will not be good, and comms are bad. A terrible last quarter. You can hold onto this.