TC EnergyTRP.TOBUY ON WEAKNESSSep 10, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Sep 25, 2026. Market Open.
Its growth is in the 7 to 8% range. It has a huge backlog of projects and is adding more. Has superior management which has started an AI initiative for optimizing its pipeline. His expectation of natural gas prices is that they will go nowhere in North America. Natural gas is above the 5 year storage levels and a milder winter is expected. It needs more liquification facilities in Western Canada.
Pulled down toward the 200-day MA, so an opportunity to pick up shares. RSI is down around 29, indicating it's oversold. Nice, steady name with pretty low beta (half that of the TSX). For the conservative, dividend part of your portfolio. Yield is 4% and safe, expected to increase over coming years.
Pipeline names serve an important need in a portfolio for those who are income-focused. Sector's been hot, valuations have come up dramatically. If you own, continue to hold. Growth outlook quite strong.
Pipelines will definitely benefit from the need for power for AI. But they can't ship more than is already allocated, so they don't get as much operating leverage as some other companies.
Pipelines are not quite as good as utilities for safety, because they're perceived as being commodity-sensitive (even though they're really not). This name will give you a good dividend and safety. You'll get your dividend, and the safety means you can sleep at night (and that's worth something). You can get diversification via funds and ETFs.
Possible deal with Iran caused similar price action across the whole complex. The whole space was at a high.
Both an oil play and an energy infrastructure play. Project backlog of $8B (with ~90% sanctioned, and another $12B being discussed) looks very visible. Great company. Trades at premium of 20x PE for 5% growth.
Better places for new $$.
TRP P/E at 19X compares with its 10-year range of 12 to 19x so it is certainly on the high end of the range. EPS growth as noted is not going to be spectacular. The stock is trading for its yield of 4.74% and its safety going into a possible recession. Business is historically stable and the tax-adjusted yield is certainly attractive vs fixed-income alternatives. We are comfortable with it, but more as an income security and would not expect big gains here. It's up 33% in the past year and we doubt that rate is sustainable, certainly. The debt is nothing new of course, and common for the sector. Lower rates will help here. It has 13 BUYS, 10 HOLDS and 3 SELLS. Avg. target price $73.37. We would consider it 'buyable' slightly lower. Our main comment here references the 'riskier' note in the question. IF we head into a period of weakness, we would prefer to own TRP over dozens of other.
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