Trican Well Service Ltd. (TCW.TO)

(A Top Pick January 5/18 Down 52%) He exited this when light oil differentials widened and capital spending declined. Bidding has remained very hostile for their services. It is trading at a 10% discount to NAV and he thinks negative sentiment is almost at its worst. They are diverting free cashflow into share buybacks, so he thinks there is hope going forward in a $70 WTI world and a $10 differential.

Likes it a lot. He is still waiting to add it to his action alert list. Its metrics are excellent but tax loss season is coming and the price will come down. The company has been buying its stock back aggressively, at an average price of $3.47. The price keeps going down and the company has slowed down its buyback. With tax loss selling, he thinks the price could drop below $2. He would buy it himself for that price. He sees this as a $3.70 stock in late 2019 and an $8.50 stock 5 years later. It was $20 in 2014

(A Top Pick November 15/17 Down 46%) He exited energy services earlier this year. The E&Ps, he feels, are harbouring cash to survive, which has resulted in lower demand for the service sector. The company trades today at a trough PE and the company is paying down debt and buying back shares. He likes the management team strategy.

He was trying to buy some today. It is trading at a 15% free cash flow yield. They are buying back $85 million of stock. A Canadian producer is selling at the equivalent of $80 Canadian per barrel – this is a cash flow machine. The stock is undervalued and they are essentially debt free.

Very cheap, trading below book value. They are using their excess cash to buy back stock. As the fracking business picks up, this stock will benefit. This stock has a lot of upside. He has a 1 year target of $6.00 and a 3-5 year target of $12.00. A very attractive buy below $3.00.

The momentum may become positive soon. He was previously worried about the massive amount of debt, but they have dramatically improved the balance sheet. You might get a 10-15% appreciation in price over the next 6-12 months.

Sell or buy more? Has fairly strong support level at $2.90. Bad sign that dropped below that and continues to drop. Technicians shouldn’t average down. Significant resistance point at $2.80. Anyone who bought in last 2-3 years, is looking to get out. Everything is saying negative. Wouldn’t touch it. Be very cautious. There’s no indication of a bottom.

(A top pick July 19/17, down 21%) Is a pure play Canadian pressure pumper. Concerns were weak natural gas pricing and lowering of capital expense spending. They have been successful at share buybacks. Are being encouraged not to buy new equipment but continue to buy back stock. Trading at about 25% free cash flow yield.

Trican Well Services (TCW-T) vs. Trinidad Drilling (TDG-T). Trinidad is still going through strategic alternatives. The founder quit suddenly. Trinidad still has a large exposure to the Permian, so this is a detractor. Trican is pure play Canada and should work in its favour. He would take Trican over Trinidad