Stockchase Opinions

Pierre Bernard Telus Corp T-T COMMENT May 21, 2008

Increase in stock relies on many factors including wireless business, where the Source license will go and also what happens to Bell Canada (BCE-T). If the BCE deal goes through, what will the new management have on the telecom landscape.
$47.920

Stock price when the opinion was issued

telephone utilities
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BUY
For 70-year-old investor who wants safety, dividend, small capital appreciation for the long term.

Tough environment. Trades at 20x PE for 2027, with 13% growth. So PEG isn't bad. Trying to make balance sheet better. Protected market share with Public Mobile brand, making it more price competitive. More resilient than BCE or RCI.B. Very well run. 13 analysts have upgraded in last 30 days, 0 downgrades.

Quiet place to put capital and collect the nice dividend. Not an "if", but a "when" thesis. The bottom probably isn't far off.

WATCH
T vs. BCE

Become differentiated when you drill into the metrics. Both suffering from credit downgrades. Took on a lot of debt for 5G buildout, but weren't able to increase pricing. Number of immigrants has slowed. Lots of price competition, just as elsewhere in the world.

In last quarter, increased dividend. Less risky than BCE right now. Debt/equity ~150%, so not as much onus on debt repayment as for BCE. Has the potential of other operations like TIXT and Telus Health, so it's doing other things outside of just telecom; appears to be promising growth, but we'll see.

In last quarter, BCE cut dividend. Debt/equity is at 200%.

DON'T BUY

Whole telecom space has been challenged, partly because of increased competition. No outlets to grow outside Canada. Profitability will be flat for some time. People own these names for the income. Rogers' purchase of Shaw gives it an edge on cost-cutting. Telus is the best operator. Rogers has the lowest dividend yield of the group.

Steer clear of the space. Even with an income stock you do want some growth, as it helps offset valuation risk elsewhere in the business.

BUY

Maybe tide is turning on competitive intensity in telecom sector, but not overwhelmingly obvious that's so. His preference in the space. Better business, better assets, and stronger balance sheet than competitors. Expects good dividend growth for his dividend growers mandate.

SELL

Right now, she has no exposure to the sector. Very competitive. Decrease in immigration takes away source of potential growth. They all provide a pretty attractive yield. Telus is an income stock, and perhaps they can increase it a bit each year, but the fundamentals of the sector aren't that attractive.

If you hold, sell, and look for a more attractive income stock in a sector with a better outlook.

BUY

Is the best among the telcos which all pay strong dividends. Likes the chart set-up with a reverse head-and-shoulders pattern. The necklines is around $23 with upside potential to $25-26. Likes it.

HOLD

Owns it just for the yield. As long as the stock doesn't go down, he doesn't expect that much from it. Should be able to clean up the business and the balance sheet, and that's happening. Seems that it can increase pricing on cell plans incrementally. Telco that's the most transparent on what's going on.

TRADE

Overvalued at $30, undervalued at $20 -- that's her trading range. Q1 revenue up, free cashflow up 22%. Yield projected to grow annually 3-8% through 2028. Doesn't see dividend being cut. Steady earnings, strong consumer retention. One you don't have to worry about.

HOLD

Dividend's safe, doesn't see any risk. All telecoms have been under tremendous pressure for the past couple of years. Did better than the others because of ancillary businesses. He's become positive on the sector. He owns all the telecoms, likes to play the laggard, this is his smallest position of the group.

TOP PICK

Best telecom in Canada. Yield of 7.4% is secure, but quite elevated relative to its 10-year average. Yield alone is not enough; feels it'll grow at a faster pace than peers, validated by company actions. All players should face easier earnings comparisons in wake of the detrimental price war. Financial strength and flexibility. 

Interesting, but growing, collection of faster-growing non-telecom businesses in healthcare and benefits consulting. Surplus urban real estate (obsolete central switching stations) can be monetized through redevelopment (not to mention the $1B that could be realized by selling the copper for scrap).

(Analysts’ price target is $23.35)