Stockchase Opinions

John O'Connell, CFA Stanley Works, The SWK-N BUY Sep 23, 2020

Great long-term play. After the election, if trade wars settle down, this could be a beneficiary of relaxed tariffs. Great job of managing through a difficult environment. Last quarter had blockbuster earnings.
$159.505

Stock price when the opinion was issued

misc industrial products
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DON'T BUY

Has sold shares in company.
Problems with inventory causing investor headaches.
Seeing increased competition from other players in industry.
Historically a well run company.

HOLD
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research.

SWK pays a yield of 4.0% but is not expected to grow its sales this year and profitability is anticipated to resume next year. Its debt levels are somewhat elevated but have been declining over the past few years. Its balance sheet has dropped significantly from 2021, where it had an equity position of $11.6B, to an equity position today of $9.5B. The company's earnings fell in 2022, leading to large negative free cash flows for the year. It trades at a high valuation of 34.8X forward P/E, but its share price has been consolidating around the ~$80 range. We feel that it may not do much for the next few quarters, but it does have a long history of profitability and returning value to shareholders, and we would be comfortable with the name while being mindful of its current risks. 
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BUY

Their chart is a reverse head-and-shoulders, it pays a good 3.5% yield, and trades at a cheap PE. 

WATCH

From end of 2022, markets have gone up. But this stock has gone nowhere, underperforming rest of market. Finally peaked up above $100, and now down. If start to see it get to $100-105, could be interesting technically.

Watch for whether it pops above resistance for just a couple of days, or does it go above resistance and stay there?

BUY

They beat top and bottom line for Q2 and raised full-year forecast. It will perform even better when the Fed starts cutting rates.

PARTIAL SELL

It's run up from previous lows. He took some profits, though the stiock could rise higher.

BUY

Is up 3.3% this year. Anything related to housing (and falling interest rates) is doing well. He expects a housing boom. So, SWK could enjoy a catch-up rally.

DON'T BUY
Price over $200 in 2021, now around $88.

Multi-year drop. Trading in a narrow range, between $80-100, and closer to the low end. Lots of resistance around $100. Avoid, or possibly trade. Could easily drop to $80, don't want it to go below that.

BUY

Has less exposure to tariffs. Earnings 3 weeks ago where they maintained forecast: over 20% earnings growth in the next 2-3 years, trading at 18x 2025 and 16.5x 2026, and pays nearly 4% dividend, which keeps raising.

DON'T BUY

Are too many problems with the company. He was about to recommend it as a dividend stock, but realizes the dividend is not safe.