Stockchase Opinions

Stockchase Insights Stanley Black and Decker SWK-N HOLD May 24, 2023

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research.

SWK pays a yield of 4.0% but is not expected to grow its sales this year and profitability is anticipated to resume next year. Its debt levels are somewhat elevated but have been declining over the past few years. Its balance sheet has dropped significantly from 2021, where it had an equity position of $11.6B, to an equity position today of $9.5B. The company's earnings fell in 2022, leading to large negative free cash flows for the year. It trades at a high valuation of 34.8X forward P/E, but its share price has been consolidating around the ~$80 range. We feel that it may not do much for the next few quarters, but it does have a long history of profitability and returning value to shareholders, and we would be comfortable with the name while being mindful of its current risks. 
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BUY ON WEAKNESS
Watch for a pullback in the DIY Bull market leading up to the Nov. 3 vote: They just reported a strong quarter. Will benefit from the current home-improvement bull market. Undeservedly is up only 5% YTD.
BUY
Before they guided 4% organic growth today, but today raised it to 10% for the quarter ending December. It rallied only under 2% today. That's crazy. This has more room to run.
BUY
Like Home Depot, SWK is still worth buying home improvement stocks like this despite a big run-up. People will continue to spend on their homes, seeing it as an investment, not as an expense.
BUY
Something's wrong with the market this earnings season--a company reports great numbers, but the market shrugs because she stock has already roared. This happened to SWK which posted a monster earnings beat including 31% organic growth and raised their full-year earnings broadcast. Shares initially fell till it fell to 19x the midpoint of its new earnings. This is a steal.
BUY
One of the best run industrial companies in the US. Multinational, continues to consolidate, highly innovative, pandemic tailwinds. Great long-term, secular growth story. Trump tariffs hurt them, as well as the weaker USD. Trades at 18x earnings, a good time to buy.
TOP PICK
incorrect PT given Trades around 14x earnings. A long-term grower. Its dividend for the last 5 years has been growing 5% annual with overall growth even higher. You should be earning 15% returns annually looking forward.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
There's decent support at $170. The stock has come off in recent months. Wait for a Sept/Oct pullback to $160. SWK offers good value. Last September, the S&P was down 10%, so we are overdue for a meaningful pullback, if we get one. A 5-10% pullback is a buying opportunity.
BUY
The stock is getting crushed because of supply shortages. He has faith in it and will stay with it, because there remains tremendous demands for tools to fix the house. Also, the home office is here to stay and hybrid work will become permanent.
BUY
Still likes it. Today it sold its low-margin, security business. Demonstrates very strong portfolio management. Accelerating stock buyback program, which will help boost earnings. Focus on growing global tool business. Well financed and managed. Innovative.
SELL
Just sold it (down 49% this year). All the catalysts have gone: housing is slowing and rates are rising. He likes the company, but this will be dead money for a while. End demand isn't there.