Stockchase Opinions

Howard Sutton HOLDRs Semiconductor SMH-N TOP PICK Sep 12, 2003

Top Short Multiple is extremely high relative to their growth. Either short or buy puts.
$36.950

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Unknown
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TOP PICK
All 3 Top Picks are in technology based on his theme that technology will be outperforming. Semiconducters are a leveraged way to play the market. Feels the stocks can do about $490 which are currently at $434 which is a 12/15% upside. Ideally would like to buy closer to $410. Better risk/reward trade there with a 20% upside.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 15/04. Down 4.3%.) Generally on semi-conductors, people love to trade. Good trading vehicle and a way to have exposure to the sector. Got out of that trade and made no money on it.
HOLD
The period is seasonal strength for this is from the end of September until the end of January. Has basically been trading sideways for 8 months and finally broke out at about $35.25. The technical target based on the break out is $39.
BUY
If you are looking at a basket of tech stocks this will mitigate your risk.
BUY ON WEAKNESS

Companies like Apple are now bringing semi-conductors back in-house and the sector is seeing many changes. It's hard to see who will be the winner. The sector has run tremendously so he would wait for a pullback before putting money in.

BUY

Semiconductors is a fast-moving sector with high valuations. Go with the 5G players. QCOM, which he owns, goes to the top of the list on valuation and potential growth. AMD has done exceptionally well, though valuation is a bit extreme. Not a bad way to play is through the SMH ETF. Nvidia has had the highest growth, but valuation also extreme. He wouldn't chase INTC, even though it's cheap.

BUY
A concentrated portfolio of 25 names. Only 35 basis points. The demand/supply imbalance will last for some time. Semiconductors will be an important part of our lives, and demand will continue. Instead, he owns NVDA, a high growth name.
BUY

Top 2 or 3 ETFs until 2022. He likes SMH-N - semiconductors. XLF-N still has upside as the financials have underperformed. Canadian banks stick out as well. They are sitting on a whack of cash and have not been able to raise dividends. They will probably take some loan loss provisions back into earnings soon.

WAIT
The semiconductor sector has been ripping and now we are seeing sideway consolidation. The sector had gotten to extreme valuations. We can probably come back to the low range, with a 10% downside possible. It would be a buy at those levels. A long term buy but right now there is profit taking.
WAIT
The best semi-conductor ETF probably. Market cap weighted so you get more exposure to the bigger ones. Good for trading in the US market, and is simple to get core exposure. He would wait. Notably NVDIA, which is overpriced. However, semi conductors are a huge part of digitization and should be a core holdings. Looking to add in the next couple quarters during weakness. Owns individual names with compelling PEs.