Opinions
Richard Fogler
SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp.
SES-T
TOP PICK
Sep 05, 2025
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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SES is cheap and has a decent balance sheet. It pays a 2.63% dividend which has shown a bit of growth. At $3.6B, it is significantly larger than QST ever was. SES has decent cash flow and the stock is up 48% in the past year. 2025 earnings, however, are expected to decline, but this does seem reflected in the low valuation of 7X earnings. The business can be cyclical, but would consider it worth buying on valuation and potential.
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Waste remediation, metals recycling. Recurring revenue. Cashflow conversion rate to free cashflow extremely high in the 50% range. Growing by acquisition and organically. Allocating a lot of capital to buybacks, and Chairman recently added a big share. Industry is not too cyclical, not too hurt by tariffs. Valuation inexpensive. Yield is 2.91%.
(Analysts’ price target is $18.97)
Premium contentSES holds a basket of waste services and recycling assets that has recently expanded to include metals recycling -- not exciting business, but stable. It trades at 6x earnings and supports a 52% ROE. Cash flow is strong and growing rapidly to allow for aggressive debt retirement and shares buyback. We recommend setting a stop-loss at $9, looking to achieve $17 -- upside potential of 25%. Yield 0%
(Analysts’ price target is $17.93)Premium contentHard one to read right now. Chart shows good news from last November, but something's been wrong with the fundamentals afterwards. Drop in April was significant, and hasn't been able to come above that level of ~$15.85. It tried, but didn't succeed. Now starting to pull back a bit. Could hit $13.50 before it finds a bottom.
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One business is transmission -- stable, secure, predictable, about 20% of total. Waste business is the other 80% -- cleaning up in oil & gas segment, stable and recurring.
(Analysts’ price target is $18.11)Trades at 12x PE, in line with the energy services business (except it's a waste management business, which trades at twice the multiple). The outlook on it is slowly transitioning. In the meantime earns 21% on capital, which is higher than typical energy services or waste management. Great management. Yield is 2.43%.