Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTAStrathcona ResourcesSCR.TOWATCHJun 16, 2025

Highest-beta name to a bullish oil thesis that he can find. Lots of running room. Growing production by ~45% over next 4 years. At $80 oil generates $900M of excess free cashflow, to be paid out as special dividends each year. Yield is 2.60%.

(Note the short timeframe.)  The big dip in the chart is because it paid out a $10 dividend. Really likes it, still holding.

Depends on whether an investor has reasonable energy exposure. If not, this is a very, very good choice among Canadian oils. If you’re underweight energy, this is the time to increase your exposure. 

But if you started building your energy portfolio a year ago, then you don’t need to increase exposure.

He started buying about a month ago. Geopolitics aside, we're in a multi-year bull market for oil. The go-to beta name if you're bullish on oil. Conservatively, over 50 years of stay-flat inventory. CEO is a very long-minded and successful steward of the ship.

Trades at low multiple of 2-3x cashflow two years out, but should be at 7-8x. At $80 oil, that's an $80 projected share price in a year or two. Yield is 3.21%.

Is a long-term holding. The charts looks like it's fallen off the Earth, but is a fantastic company. It's at the whims of the oil market. He will add more shares at these prices.

Well run. Tremendous job rolling up businesses. Still cheap because the float is held mainly by the Waterous family and all its entities, and they're planning to sell it down from 85-90% to ~66%. So there will eventually be more active trading.  

Goes with the price of oil. If oil even stays where it is, stock could be $60 in next couple of years. Yield is 2.84%.

SCR had disclosed in the summer that a special distribution of $10.00 per share if its takeover bid for MEG fails. The takeover bid for MEG was terminated by SCR in October. A meeting of shareholders is scheduled for November 27, 2025 to approve the plan of arrangement and special distribution. Its balance sheet is fairly strong, with an equity position of $6.6B, almost no net debt, cash of $1.3B, and a total debt/equity ratio of 0.2X. There are some concerns that its asset quality is not as strong as some peers, with general thoughts that MEG's Christina Lake SAGD asset could be higher quality than SCR's assets. Approval of the distribution seems likely given that the primary owner (WEF) intends to vote in favour of the plan. All else equal, the share price is likely to drop by approximately the same amount of the distribution, post-payment. We would be cautious around trying to time the market by selling between record date and payment date, as a lot of volatility can take place. We would be comfortable continuing to hold the name given its decent momentum recently, even if there is a post-distribution decline equal to roughly that of the distribution.
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SCR had disclosed in the summer that a special distribution of $10.00 per share if its takeover bid for MEG fails. The takeover bid for MEG was terminated by SCR in October. A meeting of shareholders is scheduled for November 27, 2025 to approve the plan of arrangement and special distribution. Its balance sheet is fairly strong, with an equity position of $6.6B, almost no net debt, cash of $1.3B, and a total debt/equity ratio of 0.2X. There are some concerns that its asset quality is not as strong as some peers, with general thoughts that MEG's Christina Lake SAGD asset could be higher quality than SCR's assets. Approval of the distribution seems likely given that the primary owner (WEF) intends to vote in favour of the plan. All else equal, the share price is likely to drop by approximately the same amount of the distribution, post-payment. We would be cautious around trying to time the market by selling between record date and payment date, as a lot of volatility can take place. We would be comfortable continuing to hold the name given its decent momentum recently, even if there is a post-distribution decline equal to roughly that of the distribution.
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SCR had disclosed in the summer that a special distribution of $10.00 per share if its takeover bid for MEG fails. The takeover bid for MEG was terminated by SCR in October. A meeting of shareholders is scheduled for November 27, 2025 to approve the plan of arrangement and special distribution. Its balance sheet is fairly strong, with an equity position of $6.6B, almost no net debt, cash of $1.3B, and a total debt/equity ratio of 0.2X. There are some concerns that its asset quality is not as strong as some peers, with general thoughts that MEG's Christina Lake SAGD asset could be higher quality than SCR's assets. Approval of the distribution seems likely given that the primary owner (WEF) intends to vote in favour of the plan. All else equal, the share price is likely to drop by approximately the same amount of the distribution, post-payment. We would be cautious around trying to time the market by selling between record date and payment date, as a lot of volatility can take place. We would be comfortable continuing to hold the name given its decent momentum recently, even if there is a post-distribution decline equal to roughly that of the distribution.
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SCR had disclosed in the summer that a special distribution of $10.00 per share if its takeover bid for MEG fails. The takeover bid for MEG was terminated by SCR in October. A meeting of shareholders is scheduled for November 27, 2025 to approve the plan of arrangement and special distribution. Its balance sheet is fairly strong, with an equity position of $6.6B, almost no net debt, cash of $1.3B, and a total debt/equity ratio of 0.2X. There are some concerns that its asset quality is not as strong as some peers, with general thoughts that MEG's Christina Lake SAGD asset could be higher quality than SCR's assets. Approval of the distribution seems likely given that the primary owner (WEF) intends to vote in favour of the plan. All else equal, the share price is likely to drop by approximately the same amount of the distribution, post-payment. We would be cautious around trying to time the market by selling between record date and payment date, as a lot of volatility can take place. We would be comfortable continuing to hold the name given its decent momentum recently, even if there is a post-distribution decline equal to roughly that of the distribution.
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SCR had disclosed in the summer that a special distribution of $10.00 per share if its takeover bid for MEG fails. The takeover bid for MEG was terminated by SCR in October. A meeting of shareholders is scheduled for November 27, 2025 to approve the plan of arrangement and special distribution. Its balance sheet is fairly strong, with an equity position of $6.6B, almost no net debt, cash of $1.3B, and a total debt/equity ratio of 0.2X. There are some concerns that its asset quality is not as strong as some peers, with general thoughts that MEG's Christina Lake SAGD asset could be higher quality than SCR's assets. Approval of the distribution seems likely given that the primary owner (WEF) intends to vote in favour of the plan. All else equal, the share price is likely to drop by approximately the same amount of the distribution, post-payment. We would be cautious around trying to time the market by selling between record date and payment date, as a lot of volatility can take place. We would be comfortable continuing to hold the name given its decent momentum recently, even if there is a post-distribution decline equal to roughly that of the distribution.
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Liquidity challenges. Failed takeover of MEG was a bid to improve that much faster. Better names to invest in based on premium valuation, leverage, and asset quality.

It is not a bad name with a long reserve life index. Assets are dispersed and he prefers MEG with a better asset profile and one major asset.

On his radar, but liquidity in the stock is very poor. Float is too small to buy a large chunk of shares. Likes its focus on the Montney and the oil sands (a national treasure). Loves long-dated assets and their quality. Meaningful leverage to rising oil.