Opinions
The Monthly Gems by Allan Tong
Saputo Inc.
SAP-T
TOP PICK
Apr 01, 2025
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Found support at 2022 levels, which is good, bouncing off. A sign that it's OK, a 5/10 chart, proven it doesn't want to break down any more. Is it going to start going up? Best way to tell is that the last high must be taken out. If yes, it's bullish. If not, it's consolidating. Don't want last lows to be broken. In no man's land, one to watch.
At 13X forward earnings and having a steady growth and margin profile over the years, we think it is getting interesting. It still has some issues to work through related to their Argentina business but this is likely getting priced in at these levels.
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Completely unloved today. #1 in Canada, #2 in UK and Australia, #3 in USA. Pre-pandemic, very stable. Food services division hasn't really recovered, especially in the US. Exposed to commodity prices, industry capacity needs to be taken out, cost-cutting needs to continue.
Not as high quality a business as he first thought, but excessive negativity baked into the share price. Yield is 3.2%.
Has major operations in Europe, yet it's a Canadian company trading on the TSX. There are issues dealing with dairy and the commodity side of the business.
Lots of pressure within Canada on protected costs around dairy products. Might be an easier place for our government to give in on something, so wouldn't surprise him if our dairy protection weakens or softens a bit.
A month ago, SAP reported its full-year earnings, and EPS of €2.68 beat expectations, but was down from €3.24 in FY 2023. Revenues of €34.2b were 9.5% higher from FY 2023. The main driver was the cloud. In 2024, its cloud backlog leapt 43% year-over-year to €63.3 billion while cloud revenues jumped 25% to €17.1 billion. This included a 33% increase in cloud ERP suite revenues. In terms of AI, SAP has incorporated over 1,300 skills into AI co-pilot which automates 80% of the most-used user activities.