Stan Wong Royal Caribbean Cruises RCL-N WEAK BUY Sep 12, 2024

Up till Covid, well-positioned to take advantage of increased cruising. Had to offer new shares, which diluted shares and increased debt. Clawing their way back up from lows. Cruise industry is very positive for next 12 months. Down with overall market today.

RCL is in better shape and better managed.

Both are good. RCL is s good play on the consumers. Shares are up 35% this year. NVDA: he just heard from demand for their Blackwell is insane.

They defied even his own skepticism. They delivered a remarkable quarter: renewed strength from Asia, helped by stimulus in China. They lead in cruises.

He doesn't like how everyday another analyst raises their price target on his stock. He prefers Viking now.

Good-looking chart, the trend is your friend. Slightly off its trendline, so a correction is probably due and you can buy on that pullback. Perhaps correcting to the $210 level.

It feeds into the travel theme, surprising in 2024. Cruise lines and airlines did well this year.

RCL had a big quarter just announced, and of course has staged a huge recovery from the pandemic. Royal's expectation of a 3.5% yield gain in 2025 echoes robust onboard spending and strong demand for Europe and Alaska itineraries, with accelerated bookings in the last five weeks. Royal characterized its plan to launch river cruising -- with an initial 10-ship order and several launching in 2027 -- as an opportunity to gain share in a complementary, high-end niche with shorter construction lead times and cross-marketing opportunities. That plan sets the stage for a river fleet with capacity about 11% the size of rival Viking, including current and ordered vessels. Royal's 1Q guidance midpoint implies gains of 5% in yield and 1.85% in non-fuel unit cost. Its 4Q unit-cost growth of 13.5% was slightly above 11.6-12.1% guidance due to 340 bps from higher stock-based compensation. The stock is 18X earnings and very strong growth is predicted. It is still heavily leveraged at debt/cashflow 4X, but it is in better financial shape than many peers. Cyclicality of course remains high, but we think it is interesting as a higher risk buy for those investors willing to accept some financial and economic risks here. Its recent results and move to river cruises we think are quite positive developments. 
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Key in this industry is the supply of ships. When they make too many, it's tough to own these stocks. Now, there aren't enough ships.

The completion of new cruise ships will constrain supply and be positive for cruise ships' pricing power. Is -25% from highs and trades at 14x PE.