Opinions
Stephen Takacsy, B. Eng, MBA
Rogers Communications (B)
RCI.B-T
DON'T BUY
Sep 24, 2024
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Whole telecom space has been challenged, partly because of increased competition. No outlets to grow outside Canada. Profitability will be flat for some time. People own these names for the income. Rogers' purchase of Shaw gives it an edge on cost-cutting. Telus is the best operator. Rogers has the lowest dividend yield of the group.
Steer clear of the space. Even with an income stock you do want some growth, as it helps offset valuation risk elsewhere in the business.
Maybe tide is turning on competitive intensity in telecom sector, but not overwhelmingly obvious that's so. MLSE provides interesting optionality; hard to value sports franchises, but they are rather like collectibles such as race horses or art. In the meantime, he's taking the more conservative approach and focusing on dividend growth.
His preference is Telus.
All telcos have been facing highly competitive pricing environment, slowing immigration targets, and lots of infrastructure capex. Better payout ratio, as it didn't raise dividends as much as others. So the dividend is safe. Debt issue from MLSE deal; sports assets are valuable, but not necessarily cashflow positive.
Sector has underperformed dramatically last couple of years. Immigration changes have slowed growth, more competition with Quebecor. Starting to see pressure mitigate a bit. Shaw added massive debt. Cashflow growth starting to improve, and FCF starting to increase. Paying down debt. Starting to monetize assets. Low valuation. Sports franchises are underappreciated. Yield is 4.21%.
(Analysts’ price target is $53.53)It's time to step back into telcos. Dividends are sustainable. He owns all 3 Canadian telcos. Share prices have bottomed, and he expects margin improvement. Costs have been slashed. Is partially optimistic, because shares have been so beaten down, and yet the industry isn't going anywhere. There will be some growth going forward. Is bullish on telcos. BCE's strategy in the US (buying a US company) will generate reasonable value. Telus is the faster grower and has made good moves outside telecoms to create value. Rogers is more of a question mark, including their sports holding, but is worth a ton of money (the value of sports teams is huge).
The whole sector has been under fire from increased competition. Rogers holds a lot of debt. He owns Quebecor and Telus instead; the latter had tamed their debt and generate a lot of free cash. But Rogers keeps buying stuff over and over; will these media assets pay off? He prefers companies with less debt and more cash flow. The jury is out with BCE about sustaining their dividend (are selling assets to pay down their debt). Quebecor is his top pick in telcos: the only one that's made a good return this year, though Telus is a better long-term pick because of their big cash flow that will let them pull various levers. Don't buy Quebcor or the dividend, but for the growth.