Opinions
Stephen Takacsy, B. Eng, MBA
Rogers Communications (B)
RCI.B-T
DON'T BUY
Sep 24, 2024
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Value story turned into a value trap. Whole sector's seen pressure. Is he freaking out over it being down? No. It's part of a balanced portfolio. Analogous to planting a garden -- not everything grows at the same time.
This wasn't his plan for the stock, but these things happen. You'll find that the stocks that are very unpopular become purged, especially on tax-loss selling. Then, when there is a catalyst, they do start to go higher and can do so quickly because they're under-owned. More importantly, it can give you some stability if markets come down; this one won't get sold, because everyone who wanted to sell already has.
No exposure to telcos at this stage. Pretty decent, high-quality name, yet stock continues to suffer. 200-day MA is falling, and stock price is below that. Stock hit 52-week low today. Technically, not a name to be involved in.
May seem cheap on PE, but not a name he likes. As well, he's more a growth manager than a value manager. Nice dividend of 5.2%, but you'll have to keep an eye on that over time.
Premium contentPremium contentThe immigration slowdown has weighed on all telcos, but there will be growing demand for bandwidth, services and data. Also, Rogers and Telus will monetize their towers by selling interest in them and giving cash flow to investors. Will this money reduce debt? This is a positive idea. Rogers has a low PE vs. peers, but also carries a lot of debt. Long term, fundamentals for the telcos are good, but you have to wait. Meanwhile, collect the dividend.
Balance sheets have been a struggle for all the telcos; got caught when rates went up after spending so much. Less population growth was unexpected. Competition more intense. Dirt cheap at 7x PE for 2026, but no growth until then. There is MLSE upside.
All stocks stumble at times, and you want to buy them when they're cheap. Probably the darkness before the dawn for this name.
The whole sector has been under fire from increased competition. Rogers holds a lot of debt. He owns Quebecor and Telus instead; the latter had tamed their debt and generate a lot of free cash. But Rogers keeps buying stuff over and over; will these media assets pay off? He prefers companies with less debt and more cash flow. The jury is out with BCE about sustaining their dividend (are selling assets to pay down their debt). Quebecor is his top pick in telcos: the only one that's made a good return this year, though Telus is a better long-term pick because of their big cash flow that will let them pull various levers. Don't buy Quebcor or the dividend, but for the growth.