Provident Energy Ltd (PVE.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Provident Energy Ltd (PVE.TO)

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TOP PICK

Mid-stream in energy, i.e. they do fracing, extracting liquids from natural gas. Gas prices are very low and oil prices very high so liquids prices are high. Good spread business. Had a soft year when they got hit on some hedges. Looking for $11-$12 over the next year or so.

DON'T BUY

(Market Call Minute) They are a mid stream company right now. Undervalued by no catalyst to the upside.

BUY

Likes the name because it has transitioned to a higher multiple. Margins are very large for the foreseeable future. An attractive name.

SELL

Has had a very good run. If you own, consider a switch to some combination of Crescent Point (CPG-T) and Daylight (DAY.UN-T), otherwise it's a Hold. (See Top Picks.)

COMMENT

Prefers owning this through the convertible debenture. A good portion of their business is midstream, where they process fuels, rather than taking it out of the ground. A stable business.

BUY

Real transformative story that is looking more impressive all the time. Initially a collection of “not so great” gas assets in the US with a decent set of midstream businesses where they take the liquids etc. out of the gas and this has turned out to be an absolute home run for them.

BUY

A different model than most companies because they have a lot of midstream assets as well as upstream businesses. The upstream business is OK but not that great but the midstream business is very good. There will be a chance of a distribution cut in 2011.

COMMENT

Oil/gas trust that also have some midstream assets that process natural gas. Have properties in Canada and US. Have been selling properties to reduce their debt levels.

HOLD

Sees this one staying flat for the next year. Undertook a strategic review to decide if they should split the company. Have a midstream component, which has been very profitable. 13.5% yield.

BUY

Different then most energy trust because they are a mixture of midstream assets as well as upstream oil and gas. Midstream assets are very, very good but upstream assets are not as good. Midstream trades at a substantial multiple to oil/gas assets so you are almost getting the upstream for free. Very attractive valuation. 12.7% could indicate a cut as they are currently over distributing but feels it is already priced in.

DON'T BUY

Unique because they have upstream oil/gas assets combined with more midstream natural gas processing assets. He prefers more pure plays. Had a couple of distribution cuts. Going through a strategic review.

COMMENT

(Market Call Minute.) Wouldn't own this, as it is both a producer and midstream. He prefers pure plays.

COMMENT

In the middle of the range of trusts. Not extremely great in many way. Has done a pretty good job of cleaning things up. Has a midstream business that is quite good but, unfortunately, the frac spread is way down. Could see a cut in distributions.

HOLD

Has a number of assets in the midstream area in the US and Alberta. Good management but had a history of overpaying for assets.

COMMENT

Debt levels are too high for him. Also, the decline in production is higher than what he likes. Has a nice midstream asset which is attractive.

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Provident Energy Ltd (PVE.TO)