Provident Energy Ltd (PVE.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Provident Energy Ltd (PVE.TO)

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SELL

Did really well in the last quarter because it had a mid-stream business that has done really well. Has lousy Canadian gas properties and so-so US ones. Sell on strength.

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HOLD

Holds a small position. Sold most of his position to reinvest in gas trusts. Has a mix of midstream and production assets. Very competent management.

BUY

67% oil. 10% yield with a 71% payout. A combination of oil production and gas refining.

BUY

This is a controversial name. An oil/gas trust with assets in California and Wyoming. They also have some midstream assets which he feels are undervalued by the market.

HOLD

Recently made acquisitions extending their reserve life from 9 to 16 years but is facing fairly steep declines. Distributions of about 11%.

WATCH

Provident is a different sort of energy trust, they tried to reposition themselves. They started off with high decline, low productivity, and western Canadian properties. They ended up buying some facilities and some US production in California. He could see them breaking apart into their components parts and it would be worth more busted up.

SELL

Has had strong declines in its production and its ability to produce.

DON'T BUY

Has sharp declining oil/gas assets. Reserve life will decrease over time.

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DON'T BUY

This is a name he has a hard time figuring out. It was a company that got into the natural gas liquids processing business and it is very hard to value this type of business. Prefers pure plays, so wouldn't be interested in this one.

DON'T BUY

One of his least favourite trusts. Fighting a very strong decline in terms of its reserve life. The average of the trusts is 9.5 years and this one is 5.3 years. Fairly heavily indebted. Has had declining revenue and production in the last little while.

SELL

Have 3 major strikes against them. Lower than average margins. Shorter than average reserve life. Too high a payout ratio.

DON'T BUY

A little overvalued as well as experiencing escalating costs, up 30% from the previous year.

DON'T BUY

Not as strong a growth profile as they would like to see. Sees a net "decline" in production over the next 12 months. Yield is about 12%, but when you net out the decline in reserves, there is a real return of 5%.

BUY

Their mid-stream business is very stable and has provided good cash flow. (A plant on a gas pipeline to take out products.) Have purchased some US properties and they are evaluating where this takes the company.

SELL

A sector underperform. Current share price is higher than what is warranted by the assets. Very aggressive on the acquisition side and may have some difficulty consolidating them. Cash flow ratio seems a little high.

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Provident Energy Ltd (PVE.TO)