Stockchase Opinions

Peter Arender, CFA Power Corp POW-T DON'T BUY Apr 21, 2004

Feels that this company and Power Financial look quite expensive. Could have 20/25% down side.
$55.700

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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BUY

Very strong business with defensive properties and diversified assets. Dividend very safe. Management continues to buyback shares. Expecting dividend to rise. Company starting to get support from institutional investors. Expecting NAV discount to narrow. Good time to invest. 

COMMENT
Bonds -- sell mid-term bond ETF and buy long-term bond ETF for more capital gain?

The longer the bond term, the longer the duration, and the more exposure to interest rates moving up and down. A longer-term bond will likely outperform in a falling rate environment. Not averse to this plan, but better opportunities even at 3.5-4% mid-term bonds. 

You can also get 6-7% on some equities, but it does depend on your time horizon and when you might need the money. If your timeline is 3+ years, a company like ENB or POW would be a better place.

HOLD
Has trouble breaking above $40.

He owns it for the dividend. As a holding company, trades at discount to NAV. For better rates of return and capital gains, you may want to own the companies beneath its umbrella; for example, own GWO. Similar issue with BN.

TOP PICK

Nice fat dividend yield of almost 6%, which grows 7-8%. Solid story. He worked with the CEO years ago. IGM is doing better in the US, and GWO has always been one of the better companies. PE should rise from 8x to 10-12x when interest rates come off. Yield is 5.86%.

Trades at about a 25-30% discount to NAV. Low-risk play with upside potential.

(Analysts’ price target is $43.15)
BUY ON WEAKNESS

He hasn't looked at this recently. This struggles at $42-44. Upside is limited. Be patient and buy on pullbacks.

BUY

Holding company; not strictly speaking a lifeco, though a lot of its NAV is tied up in GWO. Major investor in Wealthsimple. Multiple lines of business make it less volatile than an insurance company. Meanders along. Yield is north of 5%, growing at single digits.

Own and sleep well at night. No qualms. Capital appreciation plus dividend should throw off high single-digit or low-double returns.

COMMENT

Both companies have done quite well and both are cheap with secure dividends. It has been a good year for the sector but they may not get the same returns going forward.

TOP PICK

He's a real chicken, and looking for stocks that won't hurt too much if tariffs go the wrong way. Life insurance is fairly insulated. Won out as his pick compared to MFC. Cheap at 8.6x 2025, growing 6-7%. Market thinks growth will be 12% next year. A win-by-not-losing choice. Yield is 5.5%.

Owns Mackenzie Investors Group, GWO. Investments in names like Wealthsimple and asset management. Alternative lending business. Many different ways to surface value.

(Analysts’ price target is $49.94)
TOP PICK

Terrific FMV. Stock's at a point where it has to break out technically, but it's a story unfolding on the back of more engaged management. Big discount to book value, lots of upside. Could probably survive a Trump walloping. Nice dividend of 4.5%.

(Analysts’ price target is $53.50)
WEAK BUY

He's been buying. Great valuation, holding-company discount, decent growth rate of 6-8%. Nice dividend with a good payout ratio. Technically over its skis, but likes the name long term. Better entry at $44-45.

Only problem is that when bull markets start to give way to bear markets, people look for areas immune from tariffs. If the economy rights itself, and you see $$ going into names like tech again, this type of name will fall off. If we go into a real downturn, money will leave the market and this name will go lower along with everything else.