Stockchase Opinions

Stockchase Insights Park Lawn Corp PLC-T BUY Aug 11, 2023

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

PLC reported revenue of $85.3 million, up 12.4% year-over-year, missing estimates of $86.5 million. Adjusted EBITDA of $18.8 million rose 21% year-over-year but missed estimates of $19.7 million. EBITDA margin rose from 20.6% in the second quarter of 2022 to 22.1% in the recent quarter. Adjusted earnings per share of $0.22 came in line with estimates and rose 16.8% year-over-year. Mortality rates in the US are declining, or more normalizing after the rates during the pandemic years. The second quarter cyclically is the weaker quarter for the company. A competitor revised down 2023 guidance by 3% for EPS citing lower pre-need cemetery sales and higher borrowing costs. We don't think this quarter had any major takeaways and continue liking the name for the long-term. We would be fine starting a position. 
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

$23.300

Stock price when the opinion was issued

other services
It's the ideal tool to help you make quicker, more informed decisions for managing and tracking your investments.

You might be interested:

BUY

Recent earnings very favorable. Turning the business around. Good time to buy at current share price. Selling legacy assets. Demand for healthcare not going away. Good for long term investors.

HOLD
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

EPS of $0.3256 beat estimates of $0.3065 and revenues of $117.38M beat estimates of $113.08M. Management is overall pleased with its results given the decrease in call volume due to a declining death rate. It continues to gain market share and sales grew by 8.2%, driven mostly by acquired operations. PLC plans on divesting certain legacy assets to Everstory Acquisition Portfolio, a transaction valued at $70M. This divestiture is expected to reduce PLC's leverage ratio and provide cash for deployment into high-growth markets. Its balance sheet slightly expanded for the quarter, and sales grew, but its margins declined due to increasing interest expenses and cost of sales. It has made some progress on its debt load, but its net debt/EBITDA ratio remains high at 3.9X. We feel it is a well-run business, and in a better market backdrop it will perform well. Its high debt load is certainly acting as a drag on its financial performance, and we feel a recovery is likely once interest rates peak or decline.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

DON'T BUY

They grow by acquisition, because funeral homes are a very fragmented business. However, high interest rates make those buys expensive.

SELL
Take a tax loss, or hang on?

Pandemic pulled a lot of services forward, shares got ahead of themselves. Grows by acquisition, and M&A has slowed due to interest rates. She looks for organic growth in her companies.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Defensive business that is a good long term hold. Nature of fatalities means business is not going away. Would recommend holding. Scores 8/10 fundamentally. Believes 50% upside if bought at lows. 

DON'T BUY

Has traded stock in the past. In a "down trend" right now. Does not own shares currently. Wait to buy once the "down trend" has stopped (share price starts to rise). 

DON'T BUY

He likes the business but not the stock, Share counts have gone way up so the financials per share are not great. There are better opportunities.

TOP PICK

Recession-proof with high barriers to entry. Great managers. Revenues surged from the higher death rates during Covid, and they entered the TSX. But the stock then plunged given rough YOY comps, investors got nervous over an acquisition, and they got kicked out of the TSX. Now, it trades cheaply at 8x EBITDA and are buying back shares. They just sold a lower-margin price at a good price, so margins will grow. Expect more acquisitions.

(Analysts’ price target is $23.75)
BUY

Cut in half since added to the TSX. Pandemic death rates have normalized now. Management team's focused on increasing sales and margins, accretive acquisitions. Seasoned management team. Sold some low-margin assets, paid down debt, balance sheet in good shape. Good buy here. Demographic tailwinds.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 23/24, Up 37%)

Taken out at 62% premium to last trading price. Shows how undervalued many small- and mid-caps are on the TSX. Over 18 years, he's had ~45 takeovers in his portfolio.