Peter HodsonPetroFrontier CorpPFC.VHOLDApr 07, 2005
Remains one of the cheapest international oil companies. The whole sector is starting to consolidate a little. Has a net asset value in the $7 range. Press release this week indicated that they discovered a hydrocarbon zone and the pay area looks quite big, but no test results yet.
Risk/reward is very attractive. Venezuelan government expropriated 60% of the assets and now there is a flight of capital out of Venezuela. There is relative downside risk. Have lots of cash. Looking to increase his holdings.
(A Top Pick Sept 1/06. Down 28.3%.) Has been terrible. They have an ongoing business and he is continuing to Hold. Trading at slightly more then 4 X cash flow under basic production.
(A Top Pick Oct 19/05. Down 38.5%.) A real wipeout. Saw it as 100% upside with a 10% risk if the government messed with it. Now he sees 300% upside with a 20/30% risk if the government messes with it. Will be having more talks with the company.
Being in Venezuela, it is a country risk issue. Likes what he sees. Watch for the next few months as they bring the rig in and start drilling, they bring on more facilities and he sees the financial statements come out showing that the new regime works. He thinks it works.
Venezuelan finally announced how businesses are going to operate. Looks like the worst-case scenario with 60% of assets being appropriated. Asset value is now $2.25/$2.50 but, at this price, it is a good buy.
Loves the management and the projects they are in. Unfortunately it's in Venezuela but the market is discounting far more risk than what they're really is.