Stockchase Opinions

Jaime CarrascoNorth American PalladiumPDL.TOPAST TOP PICKJan 23, 2020

(A Top Pick Mar 15/19, Up 17%) Taken over. Encouraging to see the M&A activity.
$19.73

Stock price when the opinion was issued

$19.73

As of Dec 16, 2019. Market Open.

precious metals
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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 15/19, Up 17%) It was bought back in October and so he does not hold this any longer.
DON'T BUY
An amazing move over the last little while. Wouldn't chase it right here. Signalling a loss of control over the paper market, and eventually the commodity will reflect much higher inflationary prices. He's keeping his eye on copper.
BUY
Loves it. Platinum is going through the roof. He was selling to take profits earlier. This ride has a long way to go. Pity he doesn't own it anymore.
BUY
Palladium has gone up in price. It is used in catalytic converters. The demand has goes up with the movement away from diesel engines. He thinks the stock will continue to do well. He thinks there is still lots of good opportunity.
BUY
The company has come up against technical resistance at 1.5 times book value. The upside potential is 124%, his model says. The book value is $11 and acts as the floor for the share price. It paid a special one-time dividend recently. A very strong balance sheet. You would not get massacred buying it here.
DON'T BUY
Undervalued? In mining this one has been doing well. However, it has a short mine life, only about 8 years, so he sees it as a one asset company. He would stay away.
WATCH
We had a good rally in the gold area this year already. Palladium used to be part of that complex. Stocks had a good lift. You should trade commodities and don't fall in love with them. Don't think these are long term investments.
PARTIAL SELL
Had a beautiful run-up this past year and he kept selling it during this period. He still holds it. There are few palladium producers. PDL continues to re-organize its company. Be patient. Palladium has already had its move, though prices may rise a little further.
BUY
He owns this personally. It ranks #3 on his list of 700 stocks. Commodity prices are trading near new highs. They had a 22% earnings surprise. Things look good. Payout ratio is only 1% -- lots of room to grow the dividend. Yield 2.6%
TOP PICK
Brookfield has been very interested in this palladium mining operation in Northern Ontario. It has become a good cash flow generator. It trades at half the value of a typical precious metal mining operation, has no debt, and is expanding it production by 30% by 2021. Margins are 40% and will likely rise to 60%. Free cash flow will grow to its current market cap, he expects. Yield 2.76% (Analysts’ price target is $18.00)
DON'T BUY
Not for the faint of heart, sharply down from $25 and now $12. PDL has strong seasonality, so don't look at this until August. Feel it out from now till then. No rush to buy it now.
DON'T BUY
It does not meet his criteria. It has come down dramatically. They are owned 90% by Brookfield who has announced they will be divesting themselves of it. He would prefer PALL-N.
BUY
Likes it and is a major holding of his. Palladium prices got a hell of a spike due to demand from China, and there's limited supply from North America. He will average down over time.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 22/18, Up 57%) The Chinese and Russians have stopped selling us palladium and so now we have a problem. Palladium pricing has gone from $800 last August to $1500 today.