Stock price when the opinion was issued
Deal to get off injectables and over to tablets. Went up too far, too fast, now has fallen. LLY has 60% of revenues in US, NVO has 60% outside US. Concern is that LLY's product helps people lose more weight. But Type 2 diabetics are still growing worldwide, especially in China and India.
Trades ~16x PE, lowest it's been in almost 20 years. He's buying more. The value is there, and the company's not getting any credit for its weight-loss drug. Don't hold both LLY and NVO, as it's correlation risk.
He's owned this since 2015, trimming 7 times (that's just good risk management). Markets were pushed well ahead of themselves in 2024, and then we saw a big retraction. Fast money has come out of this name. Down ~60%, growing double digits, 16x forward PE (vs. LLY at 43x forward PE). LLY is really strong in the US, but not outside.
At this valuation, a no-brainer. Again, you make $$ when you buy not when you sell. He's going to wait and see what happens with the CEO position.
The key drug is its weight-loss one, a class of drugs he believes in and feels will be the biggest drug on the world ever, worth $120 billion in 2030. Huge growth. These drugs offer cardio benefits in addition to weight-loss. He prefers LLY.
It was the biggest European company last year. This and LLY are growing double digits and the market is growing double digits. Has owned NVO 9 years and trimmed it 7 times, and this is the first time he's bought more, on weakness. Obesity and diabetes are not going away.
(Analysts’ price target is $64.51)
Falling rapidly after a great run. Price is below 200-day MA. Valuations look somewhat attractive, but sentiment remains pretty rough. 14x forward PE for 8-10% growth. Guided lower for the year.
Great long-term catalysts, as Wegovy shows strength in treating obesity, diabetes, heart attacks, stroke, and liver disease. But it's all about patent cliffs, pricing risks, and competition.