Opinions
Brett Girard, CPA, CA, CFA
Novavax Inc
NVAX-Q
DON'T BUY
Jul 24, 2020
There is almost an arms race that is going on with respect to vaccine development. We need to wait to see how human testing is going to work out. There will be lots of volatility in the meantime. He is not interested in playing a specific name -- much like what happened with marijuana stocks. He would look to companies that will provide syringes instead.
$133.610
Stock price when the opinion was issued
Pharma & Healthcare
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DON'T BUY
Recently announced an effective Covid vaccine In 2019, they had less than $50 million in revenue. It was nascent and now prominent. They could participate in the booster Covid market, and they need to live up to their current market cap of $14 billion. NVAX has to vaccinate a quarter of the world's population to trade at 1x revenues. There's a lot of hope built into the shares that they succeed. He can't buy this and sleep at night.
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TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly NVAX is applying for Emergency Use Authorization for its COVID-19 vaccine as experts believe annual boosters may be required as with the annual flu shots. It has achieved over 89% efficacy and does not require deep freeze storage -- a huge advantage. It has agreements already in place for 180 million doses in the UK, Canada, and Australia when approved. We would buy this with a stop loss at $160, looking to achieve $272 -- upside potential over 27%. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $271.75)
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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 21/21, Down 16.7%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with NVAX has triggered its stop at $175. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. Combined with the previous recommendation to cover half the position, this results in a net investment gain of 6%.
Pharma & Healthcare
WEAK BUY
Eventually, a full, broad-spectrum vaccine will be in place to cover Covid. Will MRNA technology also develop drugs to tackle TV and HIV and other diseases. Novartis offers more a strong balance sheet and a just-announced $20 billion inflow, based on tuck-in acquisition. NVAX is fine, but there are better companies.
Pharma & Healthcare
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