Northland Power IncNPI.TOHOLDMay 19, 2026Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Nov 06, 2026. Market Open.
New management assured that the dividend was safe, and then cut it. Investors were thrown off guard. Then had a monstrous quarter. Still lots of growth ahead, particularly with 2 offshore wind projects. As projects come online, stock price will slowly get de-risked. Global energy demand continues to increase.
She may well exit this name in the next year or so, but $20 is not the right price to do that. She'll wait to see what happens when the additional projects come onboard.
The cut the dividend which heavily disappointed him. Grudgingly, he stuck with NPI, which became a good decision. Two big projects in Taiwan and the Baltic Sea are close to hitting milestones with deliverables in 2027-8. This will trigger good cash flow. Will watch new management and its new dividend policy.
Problems last year with dividend cut, shares bottomed ~$16. Story now is that things weren't that bad, just some delays in Taiwan. Dividend cut was a conservative measure. Stock's recovering.
Expects positive news from projects as the year goes on. Beyond that, needs to see a cohesive strategy. He's being patient. If management can deliver on the show-me story, he'll stay long.
Global clean-power producer, mostly back by long-term contracts. Delays in offshore wind have hurt confidence, forcing a reset in expectations. Roughly 40% dividend cut, stock's fallen. Painful, but likely necessary to protect balance sheet.
What matters now is management laying out new 5-year plan focusing on disciplined growth -- higher return hurdles, and funding projects without issuing equity. Long-term backdrop still supports the name. Sees upside from here, but wants to see more consistent execution before considering it. Ranks 9/10 fundamentally. Analysts see ~23-24% upside.
History of spending a lot of money on development, getting it going, and then committing to another big project that requires a lot more capital. Every shareholder is losing $$ right now, and just wants to see it get back to their entry price so they can sell. Move on.
In general, with long-term interest rates staying high, it's very difficult for companies that are very capital-intensive. Cost of financing long-term debt is onerous.
She owned it before last year's dividend cut which was unnecessary, a long-term decision to fix a short-term problem (an off-shore wind project in Taiwan). She didn't like what they said on investor day. They have risky assets in Spain and Colombia. They have to monetize some of their long-term contracts at some point. Lots of issues. The new CEO is doing the best she can (the problems were under the old CEO). She held onto it past $20 because it's now at $24. They just reported a good quarter. Their Taiwan and Poland projects are on schedule, which is good. New managers need to prove themselves. Not sure if she will hold onto this long-term. Wait and see.