Dan RohintonMerck & CompanyMRKDON'T BUYApr 21, 2026
Today's downward move isn't all that outsized. There's been more clarity on US drug pricing. Seeing a bit of market exhaustion, as US pharma is trading at huge premiums relative to their own history.
Rerating from pricing clarity has already been baked in. R&D pipeline in the sector is a mixed bag, doesn't trust it.
We reiterate MRK as a TOP PICK. Sales of its top cancer treatment drug, which accounts for the marjority of its revenues, is expected to more than triple its current $8 billion sales by 2028 and it has a long pipeline of new drugs, with plans to release over 20 by 2030. It trades at 23x earnings and supports a ROE of 27%. Cash reserves are growing, while shares are bought back, albeit with an increase in debt. We continue to recommend a stop at $110, looking to achieve $143 -- upside potential of 18%. Yield 2.7%
Many drugs in the pipeline, and this compensates for older drugs going off patent. For example, it's blockbuster Keytruda is going off. You want companies that deliver double-digit revenue growth on offerings.
Erratic and bumpy name. Concerns about Keytruda falling off. Pipeline (looking pretty good), execution, and valuation story. Trades at 12x PE. Just beat Q4, revenue beat. All things considered, you can own this.
Pharmas are coming back. Political policy is improving. Keytruda makes up a lot of revenues but faces a patent cliff in 2028. But MRK has invested a lot in new drugs and been buying companies strategically.
They have a good pipeline that will help offset the loss of their major Keytruda drug when it goes off-patent. MRK is good at buying and tucking in companies. Their 2025 chart wasn't that great until the end of the year when the sector caught a bid.
Is bullish healthcare for 2026 because of its growing customer base (baby boomers) who will need health services. He's been adding to Merck, post-Keytruda.
(A Top Pick Sep 02/25, Up 19.3%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly
Our PAST TOP PICK with MRK has triggered its stop at $173. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering half the position at this time and trailing up the stop (from $79) to $87.
Today's downward move isn't all that outsized. There's been more clarity on US drug pricing. Seeing a bit of market exhaustion, as US pharma is trading at huge premiums relative to their own history.
Rerating from pricing clarity has already been baked in. R&D pipeline in the sector is a mixed bag, doesn't trust it.