Stock price when the opinion was issued
Not a name that he is comfortable with. Lost their key geological person who took them into the disturbed (???) Foothills trend where they had a remarkable amount of success. Their development inventory in that play is shrinking and they’ve since farmed in on Encana (ECA-T) which presents a whole new element of risks. Stock appears to be cheap on current production but cheap stocks usually are more expensive than you thought because production does not quite grow at the same pace.
Had a bit of a stumble last year. COO left, which, in his opinion, was one of the core parts of management. Their operations and production updates have not been stellar. He needs to see 2 or 3 more quarters of this company to see if they can turn around operations and get back on the path they were a year ago. Currently trading at a very cheap multiple.
Pressure on this came with the departure of one of the senior guys that was thought to be the sole driver behind their success in the Stolberg play. He feels they have proven to the market that the people still in this company are capable of delivering results. Also, did a big farm-in with Encana (ECA-T) on PrarieSky (PSK-T), and seems they have the competency to chase a reserve like this. Thinks the market has underestimated the potential of Entice. Feels this is a $5 stock.
Has been a favourite of his for a while and he has been wrong, but he still feels strongly about this one. The asset they have there is massive. Prairie Sky has a royalty on it and they are finding they are more oily than they originally thought. One of the lowest cash flow multiples he owns. He wants to see 30 or 40 wells drilled before he makes a decision.
One of the companies that has not participated in the large rally, primarily because some of the key “value finders” they had been using in the foothills, left to form another company. Have some good wells since that management shift. A big unknown is that they did a massive form on Encana (ECA-T) on their 6 Township block just immediately east of Calgary. A large, large block of land that is relatively shallow. They are just starting that first well. Company is trading at a ridiculously low cash flow multiple. Likes the company.