MEG Energy Corp (MEG.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

MEG Energy Corp (MEG.TO)

30.89

+0.22 (0.72%)

as of Nov 14, 2025, 9:00:00 pm Market Open.

476 watching

TOP PICK

Best opportunity for oil investors. Currently trading at ~2.8x cash flow and 39% free cash flow yield. Expecting net cash on balance sheet next year (no debt). Starting a 10% share buyback. 30 years of inventory. ~3 years of cash flow can retire all of debt. Investors getting 27 years of dividend for free. Expecting a $44 share price (strip prices).

HOLD

Spinning out money and operating costs are lower. Possible take-over prospect.

TOP PICK

Not much value being placed on long term assets. 40% free cash flow yield at $80/barrel oil price. Company could privatize in 2.5 years with free cash flow. Paying down debt and cleaning up balance sheet. $50 share price valuation at $100 barrel oil price.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Nov 20/21, Up 217%) You get leverage to a rising oil price since it is unhedged. Has differential exposure to WCS differentials. At $80 oil, they will reach their next hurdle for cashflow. Upwards of 20% of shares being retired every year. Could privatize themselves in a couple years with cashflow. Target of a 6x multiple.

BUY

Owns it for the longevity of the assets and miss pricing. Leverage has always been a problem. Trading at 44% free cashflow yield at $70 oil. Fair multiple is 6x, which would bring free cashflow to 15%. Would get a $20 target with this. The stock could continue to work. On the cusp of return of capital.

BUY

How could you not like MEG? Massively de-leveraging. Will be going to the balance sheet. Next year, should return a lot of capital. 24% free cashflow at $70 oil. Could buy back all stock in a year. Inevitably will get scooped up. Expects for this to do very well. A 6x multiple would be realistic with free cashflow and asset quality. Quite bullish on the name. 8% weighting in his fund right now.

BUY

$70 oil prices seemed not possible last year. MEG was one of the names most leveraged to rising oil prices. The longer you hold at these levels, you will gain because the stock is catching up to the commodity price. Could continue to move higher even after this large move.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick May 15/20, Up 137%) A core holding for him. Must own if you are bullish on oil. Using all free cashflow to de-lever. 2.6x debt to cashflow next year at $60 oil. Spending some money to scale production to reach critical mass. Trading at under 5x cashflow with 33% free cashflow yield. Once debt is paid down, they can start increasing dividend and buybacks. At $60 oil, target is $10.80, $70 oil would be $18.64.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Apr 03/20, Up 197%) Remains a top holding. A pure play on heavy oil producer. Incredibly mispriced. It would be trading at 4.2x cashflow at $60 oil. High quality name. By next year, expects them to buy back their stock in a meaningful way. Expects to trade at $13.50 per share. Has been paying down debt aggressively. A 9% weighting for him.

BUY

A heavy oil pick pipelines down the coast with 66% of volumes. At $60 oil. Generates $900 million in fresh cash flow before hedges. They can delever quickly--and heavy debt has long been a knock against MEG. It trades at 4x 135% upside. He wants only oil stocks offering at least 100% upside. It's a free cash flow machine.

DON'T BUY

WCP-T vs. MEG-T. WCP-T is more towards the high quality side. It has performed excellently and rolled up some smaller companies. They will continue to consolidate the space and the dividend is safe. MEG-T is more leveraged to the upside. WCP-T is more of a safe haven. He prefers WCP-T.

BUY

A core holding if you are bullish on oil. They have been increasing takeaway capacity and global demand remains strong. They are a cashflow machine and they are able to de-lever quickly.

TOP PICK

They have paid down debt, but their balance sheet is not yet where investors want. Their assets were in demand from Husky. If oil prices strengthen, he does not expect this to exist for long since it is a big cashflow machine. It is hedge-fund heavy but he would buy a little if you are bullish on oil. (Analysts’ price target is $3.99)

BUY

A leverage play on heavy oil. It remains a core holding and he just bought another tranche yesterday. Demand for Canadian heavy oil is set to rise. The company has good capacity to bring it to the Gulf coast. The valuation is compelling with good cash flow. Oil at $50-$60 would mean this stock could double.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Aug 30/19, Down 21%) He sees a supply shortage in global oil. The call on oil is only going to grow. They have 60+ years of reserves, and they are ready to go down in the Gulf Coast. Free cash generation is positive.

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MEG Energy Corp (MEG.TO)