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Opinions Gordon Reid
McDonaldsMCDTOP PICKAug 21, 2018
Gordon ReidStock price when the opinion was issued
As of Aug 28, 2026. Market Open.
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Restaurant and consumer staples sectors have been under pressure, partly due to "Ozempic effect". Also, low-end consumer feeling pinched by inflation.
Limited success with value meals. That end of the economy is under pressure, unlikely to change in near future. Fuel prices are high, and likely going higher over the winter. It's actually a REIT, and they have a hard time when interest rates rise. Technically, trading below long-term MA.
Renewed traffic is down 1%. MCD is focusing on their app, but sales re flat and international sales were light. With renewed focus on the US, he expect a stronger second half of 2026.
Brian Belski
His team initiated a position last year and added to it in this last drawdown. Very little wrong with the business itself. It's struggling because US customers are struggling. Continues to open stores and grow same-store sales. Close to 20x PE, steady Eddie.
Martin Cobb, ASIPIs near August 2024 lows. Is still operating very well, but inflation is eating into profits. Don't need to rush into this.
Kevin SimpsonThe headwinds are pretty severe, The consumer is strapped along with a K shaped economy where 80% are at the lower end and are struggling. They make up the bulk of McDonalds users. There is also a strong move towards better eating habits, health consciousness and weight loss medications.
Half its business is NA, half international. Not a huge amount of growth, perhaps 5-6%. EPS growth of 7-8%. Opens a few new stores a year. More of a landlord, with over 90% franchised. Very high ROIC.
Only 20x PE today, down from historically high 20s. In his world, it's a staple not discretionary :) Yield is 2.65%.
Martin Cobb, ASIP
She owns MCD instead, because MCD owns the real estate of their branches, so they collect rent. Because they are global, MCD enjoys economies of scale. It's defensive.
Christine Poole
This is a new entry into his portfolio. It owns 37,000 restaurants, 92% of them franchised. They typically own the land that the restaurant is on and the franchisee leases it. This creates a very stable flow of cash. Same store sales are growing well. They are innovating in food choices and in payment methods. They have allocated $6 billion for upgrading their restaurants by 2022. The average spend at restaurants is increasing and at all time highs. Yield 2.5%. (Analysts’ price target is $184.20)