McDonaldsMCDHOLDFeb 18, 2014Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 05, 2026. Market Open.
Half its business is NA, half international. Not a huge amount of growth, perhaps 5-6%. EPS growth of 7-8%. Opens a few new stores a year. More of a landlord, with over 90% franchised. Very high ROIC.
Only 20x PE today, down from historically high 20s. In his world, it's a staple not discretionary :) Yield is 2.65%.
Was downgraded last Friday and today over fears they won't meet expectations this quarter, including disappointment over MCD's new chicken strips dish, that it won't turn things around. Rather, customer prefer heavily breaded chicken and the find these strips ugly. However, history says it has never paid to downgrade MCD. It's the king, offering good value and is highly well-run. The CEO will figure it out.
You can expect a little bit of capital appreciation to the $102-$103 mark plus your dividend. Valuation is expensive but the company gets beat around quite a bit based on what it reports on same-store sales every month which he feels is a little bit unfair. Has a big EM business and a big European business. European business is getting better but the US business is a little bit mixed so they have to do some reinventing in their menu. They have the cash to do this.