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Opinions Gordon Reid
McDonaldsMCDDON'T BUYOct 24, 2012
Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Aug 28, 2026. Market Open.
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Restaurant and consumer staples sectors have been under pressure, partly due to "Ozempic effect". Also, low-end consumer feeling pinched by inflation.
Limited success with value meals. That end of the economy is under pressure, unlikely to change in near future. Fuel prices are high, and likely going higher over the winter. It's actually a REIT, and they have a hard time when interest rates rise. Technically, trading below long-term MA.
Renewed traffic is down 1%. MCD is focusing on their app, but sales re flat and international sales were light. With renewed focus on the US, he expect a stronger second half of 2026.
Brian Belski
His team initiated a position last year and added to it in this last drawdown. Very little wrong with the business itself. It's struggling because US customers are struggling. Continues to open stores and grow same-store sales. Close to 20x PE, steady Eddie.
Martin Cobb, ASIPIs near August 2024 lows. Is still operating very well, but inflation is eating into profits. Don't need to rush into this.
Kevin SimpsonThe headwinds are pretty severe, The consumer is strapped along with a K shaped economy where 80% are at the lower end and are struggling. They make up the bulk of McDonalds users. There is also a strong move towards better eating habits, health consciousness and weight loss medications.
Half its business is NA, half international. Not a huge amount of growth, perhaps 5-6%. EPS growth of 7-8%. Opens a few new stores a year. More of a landlord, with over 90% franchised. Very high ROIC.
Only 20x PE today, down from historically high 20s. In his world, it's a staple not discretionary :) Yield is 2.65%.
Martin Cobb, ASIP
She owns MCD instead, because MCD owns the real estate of their branches, so they collect rent. Because they are global, MCD enjoys economies of scale. It's defensive.
Christine Poole
Great company and a wonderful franchise. Up until about February they were doing very well and then started to see same-store sales slide and raw material inflation eating the margins. Doing okay, but there are some cracks in the armour and there has been some slide in the stock price but not enough for him. They are still trading in the high teens in terms of multiple. International sales were growing at about 1.9% and domestically at 1.2%. He would prefer to see it in the low $80’s.