Opinions
Keith Richards
Maxar Technologies
MAXR-T
DON'T BUY
Dec 30, 2016
$66.890
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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TOP PICK
Strong demand is one of the catalysts. Restructuring story. New management. Good progress on balance sheet. Uptick in satellite orders. Free cashflow should be positive going forward. Good multiple. Earth imaging for government. Yield is 0.14%. (Analysts’ price target is $33.30)
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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 18/19, Up 275%) He kept picking away it and still owns it. A few years ago, this stood at $80, but fell to $10 when they a great deal to buy DigitalGlobe which increased the company's value though levered the balance sheet. MAXR does satellite imaging and analytics for defence and many other industries. It has a 10x operating cash flow, so it's still not expensive. This could hit $100.
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HOLD
This was $80 a few years ago, then an acquisition of Digital Globe (made a lot of sense) made investors worry about the balance sheet, but that's improving as they pay down debt. The DG deal married DG's orbital satellites with Maxar's existing software to analyze that data from outer space, which is important to military defence and urban planning. MAXR has had a huge dip this year, but he's holding on. Is trading at only 8x operating cash flow.
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HOLD
He continues to hold but took a little money of the table because of a substantial move. It is space exploration plays. Their cap X spending will come down in the coming year. He thinks it is positioned right and is not extended. We need space data for so many uses. There is a growing use for it. For the longer term he thinks you should stay with it.
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BUY ON WEAKNESS
The space sector is promising. Still owns this and bought more with the weakness. With digital globe acquisition, they have married the space area well. Low level orbit satellite structure is promising. There are companies that need their data. Best positioned to combine data and put it in a good format. The valuation is still good. You are seeing SPACs flowing money into the area.
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This is a stock he had played earlier in the year, and illustrates his self discipline. He buys a stock on a break out. This one went sideways, and then broke down, so he ended up selling it at around $80, and it continued to drop. Technically it broke his level of support. In his opinion, this is still a falling brick, and there is no reason to try and guess where the bottom is. Until it starts to break out to the upside, he wouldn’t touch it.