Opinions
Peter Imhof
Magellan Aerospa
MAL-T
HOLD
May 25, 2017
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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(A Top Pick Feb 28/17. Up 17.83%.) A very low multiple stock. Trades at around 11.5-12×2018 earnings. Part of the reason is that there is not much liquidity with the company. All the other companies in this space trade at around 18X earnings. There is a good chance this company may eventually get taken out. He is going to continue to hold.
EPS of 11c beat estimates of 10c; Revenue of $235.2M missed estimates by 2.6%. EBITDA of $21.69M missed estimates by 10%. Revenue rose 5.3%. EPS rose from 7c in the prior period. EBITDA rose 17%. Canada revenue declined, but US revenue rose more than 20% on volume increases for fighter and wide-bodied aircraft. Strong growth is expected in 2024 overall. We would consider the quarter, OK, but not great. The stock remains cheap, but unexcitng.
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The stock is cheap, and acting better. The sector (in the US, mostly) has been seeing some good numbers recently. It hit a 52-week high this week. We think it can be held, and >$10 is possible, even $12 under good conditions. $16 we think would be a stretch.
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Premium contentThis Canadian aerospace manufacturing company has formed broad agreements recently with India and Korea. Recently reported earnings showed a 70% increase in quarterly income, allowing cash reserves to grow while debt was retired and shares bought back. It trades at 24x earnings and 1.2x book. Its dividend is backed by a payout ratio under 20% of cash flow. We recommend setting a stop-loss at $13, looking to achieve $21 -- upside over 22%. Yield 1.1%
(Analysts’ price target is $21.00)Premium contentWe reiterate MAL as a TOP PICK. Recently reported earnings showed a 17% increase in EPS and a 25% increase in gross profits. The aerospace parts maker relies on the US for less than 25% of its revenues with the balance primarily in Canada and the rest in Europe (military/defense accounts for about a third of revenues). It trades at 24x earnings and 1.1x book. Cash reserves are growing, as debt is retired and shares bought back. We continue to recommend a stop at $13, looking to achieve $21 -- upside potential over 30%. Yield 0%
(Analysts’ price target is $21.00)
He really likes this company. The multiple is very low. When he recommended it in the past, it was about 10X earnings. You only have to get a couple of multiple readings above that to get a much, much higher stock price. Last quarter wasn’t great, but thinks the cash flow generation is still there. The problem is that it is very illiquid, so for individuals it is a good one to own, but for institutions it is difficult.