Gordon ReidLyondellBasell IndustriesLYBCOMMENTDec 17, 2014

Chemicals and fertilizer sectors are rallying now. It just broke $80 resistance, now support, and the next resistance level is $100.

Up 86% in Q1 and one of the best performers on the S&P. It started to rise early this year because the market expected many interest rate cuts this year. Then, it went up because of petrochemical shortages caused by the Iranian government. LYB is at a risk of a pullback before the war ends. Maybe, maybe not.

For this to succeed, they need China to get stronger and have worldwide growth, neither of which we see now.

Buy some now, and if it reaches a 7.5% dividend yield, add more.

The best time to buy this is right now, at the start of rate-cutting, which will boost housing and products associating with home-building like appliances and carpets which require chemicals. Also, China's stimulus is a boost to cyclicals levered to China's economy.

It is a big plastics maker but sales haven't grown much in the past few years.

Challenge with industrials in the chemicals space is that they tend to be the canaries in the coal mine for weakening economic times. Fair bit of volatility this year. At this point, doesn't make sense to own.

A petrochemical company. They're vertically integrated and in many markets. They're winning business with strong earnings. The street is neutral on this, but this could be a commodity-uptick play. Decent yield of 3.78%. (Analysts' price target $117.89)

A past top pick. His biggest industrial U.S. holding. They make plastics and have a crude refinery on the Gulf Coast. Recent dip hurt by Hurricane Harvey then bounced back. Strong earnings growth. Reasonable multiple of 11x 2018 projected earnings. LYN expects increase in profitabilty and demand.

A global chemical company which produces chemicals that makes plastics. This has a good valuation and he likes the global growth story. Strong balance sheet. They've done a great job of growing their profitability and their cash flow. Dividend yield of 3.1%. (Analysts' price target is $110.)

(A Top Pick July 29/16. Up 19%.) This was great value. Basically industrial, focused on the chemical side. Producing plastics is its main business. Stable oil prices really helped out. Trading at about a 30% discount to its peers, which is warranted, because earnings are likely to be lacklustre in the next little while. You are still getting a 4%+ dividend. There is still room left on the stock.