Longview Oil (LNV.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Longview Oil (LNV.TO)

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PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick Nov 22/11, Down 27.90%) Commodity was down 36%. Still likes it and added to it recently and will hold unless operating numbers deteriorate.

BUY

Cut their guidance in Q2 of this year when oil prices were very low but only cut production about 4%-5%. Advantage Oil (AAV-T) owns 45%-46% have indicated they want to become a purer play and are selling all of their non-core assets but indicated they won’t sell this company’s shares. Some in the market do not believe that, so the stock price has been suppressed. You have a low decline asset base, predominantly light oil, that is paying about 8.5%-8.6% and the dividend is very safe.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Oct 13/11. Down 21.38%.) Light oil weighted producer. Company has a pretty strong balance sheet. 8.77% yield. Still likes.

DON'T BUY

Advantage Gas has sold some of their shares and he thinks they will continue to sell until they have nothing left. Feels this company can starve for capital because of Advantage’s situation. He prefers Baytex (BTE-T) which is a good quality, well run company.

PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick Oct 13/11, Down 18.09%) Oil weighted story with healthy dividend. Likes company a lot.

TOP PICK

(A Top Pick June 9/11. Down 30.24%.) Valuation is incredible. You are getting an 8% yield on a very sustainable oil story. Would hope to own this one for the next decade.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick June 9/11. Down 20.38%.) He is hoping to own this for the next 10 years. Yields 7%. Growing organically 5% to 7% per year. Nothing wrong with it, it just that the oil price has weakened. Pretty good deal today. Great price.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick April 18/11. Up 0.82%.)

TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Oct 13/11. Up 6.64%.) One of the highest quality names in his portfolio. Advantage (AAV-T) owns 63% and he expects they will sell down their interest, which will propel the stock price higher. Expect it will produce 6700 barrels in 2012. A lot of their wells do not have to be fracture stimulated. Looking for a dividend of about 6%-7%. Sees 10% as a very achievable growth target.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Oct 13/11. Up 19.32%.)

TOP PICK

6% dividend yield. Have the oil assets that got spun out of Advantage (AAV-T). Great operating team. Dividend is 1/3 of cash flow and they'll use 2/3 to drill low risk development wells. They should be able to increase production gradually over time. Hoping for a 10%-15% return out of them.

TOP PICK

Paying about 7% dividend yield. Balance sheet is in great shape. About 7000-8000 barrels a day of primarily oil at a very low decline rate. Expecting good growth next year.

TOP PICK

Spun off out of Advantage (AAV-T). Oil assets that were stranded inside a gas company. Can drill them up very efficiently over the next 2 years. Very profitable company. Great place to hide and collect your 6% dividend.

TOP PICK

Sitting at about 6100 barrels a day. Dividend of about 6%. Because the assets were undercapitalized in the previous company, the decline rates are fairly modest. Have a good inventory of light oil.

TOP PICK

Oil properties inside Advantage. They spun out the oil assets. Fairly low risk oil assets. Now they can extract the value from the properties. Went public in April. Thinks they can double production over the next two years.

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