Opinions
Gordon Reid
KB Home
KBH-N
PAST TOP PICK
Oct 03, 2018
$23.390
Stock price when the opinion was issued
contractors
It's the ideal tool to help you make quicker, more informed decisions for
managing and tracking your investments.
You might be interested:
Premium content
TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly The US based home builder is again reiterated as a TOP PICK. Recently reported earnings showed a 35% increase in the number of homes delivered with average sales prices up 11% -- helping to propel EPS above analyst expectations. Trading at 8x earnings, compared to peers at 18x is trading at 1.5x book value. It pays a small dividend (that has tripled over the past 3 years) that is backed by a payout ratio under 15% of cash flow. We recommend trailing up the stop (from $32) to $38, looking to achieve $53 -- upside potential over 20%. Yield 1.38% (Analysts’ price target is $53.00)
contractors
Premium content
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 18/21, Down 12.8%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O’Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with KBH has triggered its stop at $38. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. This will result in a net investment loss of 10%, when combined with the previous buy recommendation.
contractors
COMMENT
An analyst downgraded it today. The averaging selling prices for homes remain great, says the company, without signs of slowing. Q1 revenues were up 23% but slightly missed estimates. It's down nearly 10% in the past week. They fell short on the top and bottom lines. However, they have a very strong backlog to fulfill and management maintained their full-year forecast as the company expects higher prices. It now trades at a big discount to book value. Instead of buying back shares (at low share prices), the company would rather buy more homes. The homebuilders are cyclicals . Also, can they execute? Supply china shortages are a problem.
contractors
COMMENT
Home demand will remain strong will at least the end of the year, though skyrocketing labour and materials costs like lumber and metals are a a problem. Last week, KBH reported a disappointing quarter, though management raised parts of guidance. The averaging selling prices for homes (and demand) remain great, says the company, without signs of slowing. It trades at only 3.3x this year's earnings, so it could be a bargain. Q1 revenues were up 23% but slightly missed estimates. They reported great numbers in California. Shares are down nearly 10% in the past week after they fell short on the top and bottom lines last week. However, they have a very strong backlog to fulfill, and management maintained their full-year margin forecast as the company expects higher home prices. The CEO says their biggest challenge is completing homes. Shares now trade at a big discount to book value. If they start buying back stocks, he's in, but if not, he's on the sidelines.
contractors
WATCH
They report Tuesday. Housing the linchpin of the economy and prices keep climbing. We need to hear if they will build more homes or keep the supply so tight that housing prices won't come down. The buildings are limiting supply to keep gross margins up and prices up, but it's terrible to fight inflation. Housing stocks have hung up because we have a housing shortage, but how long can this last when we see pushback on the prices of other items like dining out, apparel and airline tickets, all of which have risen dramatically in the last 5 years.
contractors
DON'T BUY
(A Top Pick November 10/17 - Down 17%.) They had a great year in 2017. Also, other builders. Not so much so far in 2018. Higher interest rates are a negative for the housing market. But there are many positives on the other side of the page. Unemployment is at the lower level since the 60’s. Wage growth at 2%. For homebuilders’ supply is the problem not demand. Revenues up 7%, earnings up 70%. But the market doesn’t like it because interest rates are going up. That creates an opportunity in his opinion.