Opinions
Gordon Reid
JP Morgan Chase & Co
JPM-N
BUY
Apr 13, 2021
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Financial sector offers great promise, though it's reacted to current markets by pricing in a potential recession. Slower economic growth would not be good for banks. Absent a recession, with consumer confidence returning and unleashing M&A, the sector provides a good opportunity.
Don't value it on PE. Instead look at price to book, and it's expensive at 1.8x. Less expensive options include BAC and C.
Very efficient, with the lowest overhead ratio and highest ROE of all competitors. Very strong balance sheet, and it's very liquid. Should outperform peers in any type of economic environment. Stock's pulled back on tariff uncertainties about 17% from its highs, now trading ~12.5x forward PE. Increased dividend last week. Yield is 2.42%.
(Analysts’ price target is $257.89)A new purchase (June) for the portfolio. Global scale. Quite possibly the best bank in the world. Its smaller wealth management business is a focus for growth. Increasingly, scale matters in banking; secular shift away from regional banks.
Abundant organic growth opportunities, so it pays out a modest 25% of earnings in dividends. Outperforms the Canadian big 6, a rare feat. Robust earnings and dividend growth, compounding ~13% over the last decade. Yield is 1.99%.
All the US financials have done pretty well, which is a good reflection on the potential of the economy. Her core US bank stock. Great long-term hold. For new $$, wait for a pullback; on down days, you can start to average in. Very well run, lots of excess capital. Plans to grow US presence.
Is the biggest and best of the money centre banks, but trades at 2.2x book value vs. Citi's 0.7-0.8x book. Citi was punished but is under a new CEO. Citi is less exposed to international markets and that volatility. Numbers are showing positive. He likes both. But JPM is fully valued though continues to do good things. The other is a little riskier, but more potential upside.
It's a safe, solid choice, likely the best-run bank in the world under a superb CEO. There's still money to be made in the banks. JPM reports tomorrow. He wants to hear about their loan growth and net interest margins during this steeper yield curve. They've excelled in capital markets as SPACs continue to hum and he expects this to continue. They have many years of cost-cutting. BAC has slightly more upside, though.