Stockchase Opinions

Mike Vinokur Imperial Oil IMO-T DON'T BUY Nov 28, 2023

It's a stable, well-run integrated oil company, but he's never owned this, because the US parent majority-controls IMO. Is better growth elsewhere.

$78.910

Stock price when the opinion was issued

integrated oils
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TOP PICK

Rock-solid balance sheet. Great long-life assets. Operational excellence. Cashflow-generating machine. Bought back 1/3 of company's shares in last 7-8 years; that will continue. 5-year dividend growth rate is 23% a year. Pricing power. A company that will offset inflation. Yield is 2.5%.

(Analysts’ price target is $102.21)
DON'T BUY

Very well run company. Trading at premium to other energy companies. Safe company with excellent inventory. However, better options out there for investors. 

WEAK BUY

Oil prices weak recently, generally gets a little firmer coming into winter. Lots of Middle East conflict. US energy producers in general have performed much worse than Canadian, partly because of debate on whether shale can sustain production. 

Longer term, the sector is attractive and these companies will generate a ton of cash and strong dividend growth. Near-term technical questions. He'd love to see price of oil stabilize. It has in last couple of days, but that's geopolitically driven.

BUY

The ZEO ETF recently broke out to new highs. In the group, he likes CNQ, IMO and SU.

WEAK BUY

Good business. Alberta oil sands are low cost, long life, low decline. Refineries. Integrated, with benefit being that it takes the raw edge off commodity price sensitivity. Owns this indirectly through the back door, with an investment in XOM (major shareholder of IMO).

Modestly bullish on oil. Not his first choice, but no quarrels with it either.

TOP PICK

Sideways trading range. Reported earnings today. Should not be affected as much by potential US tariffs, as energy may be exempt. Boring, blue chip. He likes energy, and this is a way to play. Yield is 2.9%.

(Analysts’ price target is $104.28)
TOP PICK

Bought this around $92 with proceeds from CNQ. Attracted to the chart. A swing chart, easy to trade. Hopes it'll go to at least $105 or so, which is when he'd probably sell. Yield is 3%.

(Analysts’ price target is $104.56)
SELL

Performed very well. Aggressively buying back stock. Trades at a deserved premium. But today he'd prefer CNQ. Good tax-loss candidate. Very strong balance sheet. FCF today is not what it was.

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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

Markets have factored in lower oil prices into the share price, but as the company is also a refiner, its downstream segment will benefit from lower feedstock costs.  It trades at 12x earnings, under 2x book and supports a ROE of 21%.  The company will announce latest financial results today -- we'll see if they are able to continue growing cash reserves.  We recommend setting a stop-loss at $67, looking to achieve $103 -- upside potential of 16%.  Yield 2.9%

premium

This is a Panic-proof Portfolio opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 17/25, Up 16.5%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

Our PAST TOP PICK with IMO has achieved its target at $103.  To remain disciplined, we recommend covering half the position at this time and trailing up the stop (from $67) to $84.