Stockchase Opinions

James Hodgins Indigo Books & Music Inc. IDG-T PAST TOP PICK Jul 25, 2011

(A Top Pick Nov 15/10. Up 6.49%.) Pair Trade going Long this and Short Hastings Entertainment (HAST-Q).
$12.210

Stock price when the opinion was issued

specialty stores
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COMMENT
Advent of digital books and e-readers is an opportunity for them. Near-term earnings are going down a bit as they put money towards the electronic initiative. Earnings were down 21% year-over-year and coming quarter expected to be up 6%. Earnings expected to slip from $1.22 in 09 to $1.17 in 10 and forecasting 15% growth in 2011. 11X PE.
TOP PICK
Pair Trade going Long this and Short Hastings Entertainment (HAST-Q). Physical book market is in permanent decline. This company has anticipated this and came out with Kobo, one of the leading e-readers. Has about $6 a share in cash.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 15/10. Up 0.91%.) Pair Long this and Short Hastings Entertainment (HAST-Q).
DON'T BUY
Books are not a sustainable business. How does a traditional bookseller capitalized on current trends. Electronic books are taking over. Dividend is not safe and secure.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 15/10. Down 13.8%.) Pair Trade. Long this and Short Hastings Entertainment (HAST-Q). Total return of the pair trade was about 1%. Intrigued by their global platform. Has evolved from a book store chain to a specialty retailer.
COMMENT
Stuck in a very tough business environment. Being affected by online businesses or you can now get books. Also a lot of tablets, where you can get online books, will make it tough for them. They were a large owner of Kobo, which was just sold so they should net $70 million-$80 million free cash which should help them sustain the dividend.
DON'T BUY

Like many other book retailers, this is in a very challenged industry. People are ordering books online, getting free content online, downloading books and magazines on to iPads. Nice dividend of about 4%. Wouldn’t Short because of the dividend.

DON'T BUY

They’ve done a great job, but it may be hard to create profitability. It is a challenge that they may not exist in 10 years. You could enter if it got to liquidation value.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Has had a huge run and is not sure he would be courageous enough to get onboard at this point. Management has done a remarkable job of building this. He would look for a little lower entry point.