Opinions
Jeff Black
Hewlett-Packard Co
HPQ-N
SELL
Sep 25, 2012
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Imaging and printing, personal computing, SaaS. Proceeds from SHOP and NVDA were used to buy this one. Reminds him of ORCL. Strong cashflows, mature business, stable market share, returning significant amounts back to shareholders, progress on efficiencies. Attractive PE in mid-teens. Price target of $39.50. Different from HPE stock. Yield is 3.59%.
(Analysts’ price target is $29.30)
HP trades at 11.83x compared to Dell’s 28x. It also pays a 3.18% dividend vs. Dell’s 1.28%. Though the two companies make up half the market’s PC sales, HP says its new line of AI PC’s won’t make a dent in their earnings until the second half of 2024 and particularly 2025. The company’s Q2 total revenue for was $12.8 billion, down slightly from last year's $12.91 billion, but better than the $12.59 billion the street expected.
Price is significantly lower than it has been for a number of years. But the company has materially changed as well. Significant change in operations. Have a new CEO. There are a lot of headwinds in the space they are in. Not participating that much in the convergence to mobile. Thinks they will be economically sensitive in a weaker macro environment. If you own, consider triggering a loss. You only have to be out of it 30 days to reposition at a new ACB and be patient for a turnaround over the next few years.