Opinions
Paul Harris, CFA
Honda Motor Ltd.
HMC-N
COMMENT
May 05, 2016
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Ford, GM and, of course, Tesla, attract all the attention, but this Japanese carmaker could outpace them. Trading in New York, Honda has just partnered with Sony to produce EV's by 2025. It's a belated move into electric cars, but promising, given the prowess of Sony in electronics and Honda's track record as a successful gas automaker. Each company will invest five billion Yen (US$37 million). Meanwhile, Honda will launch two EV's in partnership with GM in 2024.
A dividend pick for 2025. Is down a lot from their highs. A contrarian play. It pays around a 5% dividend yield. It trades at a reasonable valuation and offers decent earnings growth in 2025 of 5-7%. Collect the dividend and enjoy a little capital appreciation on top. You won't shoot the lights out, but you can relax with this steady earner. Honda has 50% of their market cap as cash on the balance sheet. The Nissan merger sounds fantastic.
Autos are the hardest sector to analyze on tariffs. Chart shows that it's gone nowhere for a long time; the high was back in 2011, then dead money. The low from 2022 is ~$22. If you're interested, buy a half position right now. Then watch. If you own it, certainly don't sell; we've seen this ride with Honda before.
The Japanese are making great cars, and are doing a better job than the US automakers. A problem they face is a much stronger yen, which has happened in the last little while even though there are negative interest rates. US sold 80 million cars in North America last year, and that is going to be a hard number to achieve again. Expects car sales will be going down in NA.