Opinions Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
HBP Global Gold Bull+ ETFHGU.TOCOMMENTFeb 29, 2016
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTAUnknown
$30.89
Stock price when the opinion was issued
$23.63
As of Jan 17, 2025. Market Open.
E.T.F.'s
It's the ideal tool to help you make quicker, more informed decisions for managing and tracking your investments.
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DON'T BUY
Leveraged play to the gold producers. The gold mining sector has been a frustrating trade. These stocks have been the cheapest in modern history. When is this trade going to work out? When nobody owns it, you know it's underinvested. Uncontrolled inflation is when gold would trade up. This ETF is not good for buy and hold but to trade.
E.T.F.'s
DON'T BUY
A leverage play on gold stocks. You have rebalancing risk which you do not want for gold. The factors that drive price of gold is currency and real interest rates. We are in negative real interest rates. Therefore, the major driving factor is the interest rate more than currency. Gold is starting to respond.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
What indicators do you use in tech analysis? It's a beta pro ETF, so it's twice as volatile, not for the faint of heart. Look at the GDX chart to read gold--the GDX is in an uptrend since mid-2018, but has been recently pulling back. The smart money is very short, but Nov-Feb is strong seasonality for gold--so, gold can go one of those two ways. He sees a gold rally that will coincide with a market pullback coming soon. If this current pullback is nasty, HGU will be very volatile. For indicators in his tech analysis, he uses seasonality, smart money positioning, price momentum, relative strength and volume,
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
Whenever you have one of these leveraged ETF’s, you have to remember that these are a short-term trading vehicle. You would never hold one for more than a week. You could be on the right side of the market and still lose your shirt. Leveraged ETF’s have their price reset every day. You have to watch these like a hawk.
E.T.F.'s
BUY
This is a leveraged ETF. Every day, the underlying derivative buys high and sells low. It is not ideal for long term holding unless you get a dramatic trend.